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AUD/USD Analysis Forecast For 21 May 2015

Analysis and Recommendation (AUD/USD Analysis Forecast):

The AUD/USD gained 10 points to trade above the 79 price level but was unable to break back above the 80 level seen last week. The US dollar continued to rally gaining to 95.41 in the early trading session. There was a lot of news for Aussie traders this morning with a speech by RBA Lowe and the Westpac Consumer Sentiment index which far exceeded last month’s read.  The Aussie is trading at 0.7924.

There has been a positive reaction to the federal budget with consumer confidence shooting up to its highest level since January. The Westpac/Melbourne Institute index showed consumer sentiment rose by 6.4 per cent in May to 102.4 points – the above-100 result means there are more optimists about the economy than pessimists. The survey was conducted in the days following the release of the federal budget on May 11.

The latest jump in consumer sentiment brings hope that consumer and household spending may pick up from here and in turn bring forth more investment and spending from the non-mining business sectors of the economy.

The results support the earlier release of the weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence index, which was up 3.6 per cent last week, following the budget, building on a gain the previous week after the Reserve Bank cut official interest rates again to a record low 2 per cent.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review in forex trading. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information for AUD/USD in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  AUD RBA Assist Gov Lowe Speaks        
  JPY GDP (YoY) (Q1) 2.4% 1.5% 1.1%
  JPY GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 0.6% 0.4% 0.3%
  AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment 6.4%   -3.2%

 audusd chart

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring for AUD/USD in forex trading:

Thursday, May 21, 2015

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  CNY HSBC Manufacturing PMI   49.3 48.9  
  EUR German Manufacturing PMI   52.3 52.1  
  GBP Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)   0.4% -0.5%  
  USD Existing Home Sales (Apr)   5.24M 5.19M  
  USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing   8.0 7.5

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 21 08:30 Spain Auctions Bonos

May 21 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction

May 21 09:10 France Auctions BTANs

May 21 09:30 UK Auctions 4.75% 2030 Conventional Gilt

May 21 10:10 France Auctions

May 21 15:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 26 May

May 21 15:00 US Announces details of 2-year FRN on 27 May, plus 2/5/7 year

May 21 17:00 US Auctions 10-year TIPs

May 22 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction

May 22 10:00 Norway Details bond auction on 27 May

 

AUD/USD technical analysis forecast archieve

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