Analysis and Recommendation (AUD/USD Forecast For 8 June):
The AUD/USD gained 13 points against a strong dollar with no data due in the morning session. Stronger iron ore prices are helping the local currency. The Aussie is trading at 0.7697. Already the rising ore price is having an impact on production with the latest data from Port Hedland, the world’s largest iron ore export terminal, showing a 5.2 per cent lift in exports to China in May as Australia’s iron ore suppliers capitalized on the mild reversal in fortunes.
The production tactics of the nation’s big two miners — Rio and BHP — have been the subject of much debate over the past 12 months, with Glencore again criticizing the tactics of the two heavyweights this week.
Over the past 24 hours the currency has seen a high of US77.89c and a low of US76.63c.
The local currency saw momentum halted Thursday after a strong start to the week as the RBA opted to keep rates on hold on Tuesday and data on Wednesday showed the economy expanded at a faster clip than expected in the first quarter.
The falls were driven by weak retail sales numbers, with the flat reading for April coming in below expectations for a 0.3 per cent lift in spending. The decline was exacerbated by news the trade deficit had jumped to a record $3.89 billion in April, following a revised deficit of $1.23bn in March.
Losses were then exaggerated overnight as US jobless claims data beat forecasts, Greece bailout talks dragged on with no solution in sight and commodity prices — outside iron ore — retreated.
ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review in trading forex. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information for AUD/USD in our weekly reports.
Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:
It is a light data day until the US NFP – There was no top tier data in Asia
|EUR||German Factory Orders (MoM)||0.5%||0.9%|
|EUR||GDP (QoQ) (Q1)||0.4%||0.4%|
|EUR||GDP (YoY) (Q1)||1.0%||1.0%|
|USD||Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)||0.2%||0.1%|
|USD||Nonfarm Payrolls (May)||225K||223K|
|USD||Participation Rate (May)||62.8%|
|USD||Private Nonfarm Payrolls (May)||220K||213K|
|USD||Unemployment Rate (May)||5.4%||5.4%|
Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring for AUD/USD in trading forex:
Monday, June 08, 2015
|Australia – Queen’s Birthday|
|JPY||Current Account n.s.a. (Apr)||2.795T|
|JPY||GDP (QoQ) (Q1)||0.6%|
|JPY||GDP (YoY) (Q1)||2.4%|
|CNY||Exports (YoY) (May)||-5.0%||-6.4%|
|CNY||Imports (YoY) (May)||-10.7%||-16.2%|
|CNY||Trade Balance (May)||44.95B||34.13B|
|EUR||German Industrial Production||0.6%||-0.5%|
|EUR||German Trade Balance (Apr)||19.0B||19.3B|
|CAD||Housing Starts (May)||181.8K|
|CAD||Building Permits (MoM) (Apr)||11.6%|
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
Jun 08 12:00 Norway Details bond auction on 10 Jun
Jun 08 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTP/CCTeu on 11 June
Jun 09 11:10 Austria Holds RAGB bond sale
Jun 09 11:30 UK Auctions 0.125% 2024 I/L Gilt
Jun 10 11:15 Norway Holds bond auction
Jun 10 11:30 Germany Eur 5bn Jun 2017 Schatz
Jun 10 16:30 Sweden Details bond auction on 17 June
Jun 11 11:30 Spain Auctions Bonos
Jun 11 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus
Jun 11 11:10 Sweden Holds inflation-linked bond auction
Jun 11 11:30 UK Auctions 3.5% 2045 Conventional Gilt
Jun 11 17:00 US Announces details of 30-year TIPs sale on 18 Jun
AUD/USD analysis forecast