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AUD/USD Analysis Forecast, May 14, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation (AUD/USD Forecast):

The AUD/USD added 5 points in the opening session as the US dollar continued to ease. The Aussie is trading at 0.7981 after gathering momentum on Tuesday as sentiment shifted to support commodity currencies.  The Aussie is trading higher a day after the conservative government delivered a budget that pledged to deliver a surplus. Among other measures to boost the economy, the government promised to help small businesses.

Economists at NAB said markets should have a “modest but nonetheless positive” reaction, as Australian policymakers shift away from an austerity drive last year and instead delivered something more “politically saleable” as the economy struggles from falling commodity prices.

Having delivered an austere Budget in 2014, which sought to raise taxes and slash government expenditure, the Liberal-National coalition government had no intention of making last night an exercise in shock and awe. Joe Hockey, the federal treasurer, had described it as a “boring” Budget in the lead-up, and most of the key changes had been announced or leaked to minimize the chance of nasty surprises.

JPMorgan chief economist Stephen Walters said “The journey back to surplus looks simple on paper, but probably will not be an easy ride, given the steady headwinds the economy continues to face. The path back will be long and winding, and there will be bumps along the way, as the Treasurer learned this year as iron ore prices tumbled. Not least among the challenges from here, outside maintaining decent growth in the economy, will be getting the new measures passed through parliament, as well as some of the stale ones from last year.”

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review in forex trading. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information for AUD/USD in our weekly reports.

AUD/USD chart

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  USD API Weekly Crude Stock -2.000M -0.250M -1.500M
  NZD RBNZ Gov Wheeler Speaks
  JPY Adjusted Current Account 2.07T 1.34T 0.61T
  JPY Current Account n.s.a. (Mar) 2.795T 2.060T 1.440T
  AUD Wage Price Index (QoQ) (Q1) 0.5% 0.6% 0.6%
  CNY Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) 13.5% 13.5%
  CNY Industrial Production (YoY) 6.0% 5.6%

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring in Forex Trading:

Thursday, May 14, 2015

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  NZD Business NZ PMI (Apr) 54.5
  NZD Core Retail Sales (QoQ) 1.5% 1.5%
  NZD Retail Sales (QoQ) (Q1) 1.5% 1.7%
  GBP RICS House Price Balance (Apr) 22% 21%
  CNY New Loans 1,210.0B 1,180.0B
  USD Core PPI (MoM) (Apr) 0.1% 0.2%
  USD Initial Jobless Claims 275K 265K
  USD PPI (MoM) (Apr) 0.2% 0.2%

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 14 09:00 Ireland Eur 0.75bn 0.8% Mar 2022 IGBs

May 14 09:30 UK GBP 3.75bn 2% Jul 2020 Conventional Gilt

May 14 15:00 US Announces details of 10-year TIPS sale on 21 May

May 14 17:00 US USD 16bn 30-year bond

May 18 09:30 Germany Eur 1.5bn 12M (May 2016) Bubills

May 18 10:00 Belgium Auctions OLOs

 

AUD/USD analysis forecast

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