AUD/USD Analysis Forecast, May 20, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation (AUD/USD Analysis Forecast For 20 May):

The AUD/USD dipped 5 points to trade at 0.7985 as the greenback gained in the Asian session.  Data in the US continued to print on the weaker side as analysts reevaluate the recovery. U.S. builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes in May dropped 2 points to a level of 54, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index released Monday.

The Aussie declined after the Reserve Bank left the door open to more interest rate cuts, if needed.  The RBA cut the cash rate on May 5, but the statement accompanying the decision failed to give guidance on what, if any, future action the central bank might take on rates.

The minutes of its May meeting were released on Tuesday, and clarified that the lack of guidance on rates did not mean the bank was ruling out future moves.

Western Union Business Solutions currency strategist Steven Dooley said he was surprised by the market’s reaction to the Reserve Bank minutes.

“It is in line with what we heard yesterday from (RBA deputy governor) Philip Lowe that the RBA still has the potential to cut rates if the need arises,” he said.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review in forex trading. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information for AUD/USD in our weekly reports.

audusd chart

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  NZD PPI Input (QoQ) (Q1) -1.1% -0.7% -0.4%
  AUD Monetary Meeting Minutes
  NZD Inflation Expectations (QoQ) 1.8%


Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring for AUD/USD in forex trading:

Wednesday, May 20, 2015

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  JPY GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 0.4% 0.4%
  JPY GDP (YoY) (Q1) 1.5% 1.5%
  AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment -3.2%
  EUR German PPI (MoM) (Apr) 0.2% 0.1%
  GBP BoE MPC Meeting Minutes
  CAD Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Mar) 0.7% -0.4%
  USD Crude Oil Inventories -2.191M
  USD FOMC Meeting Minutes

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 20 09:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

May 21 08:30 Spain Auctions Bonos

May 21 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction

May 21 09:10 France Auctions BTANs

May 21 09:30 UK Auctions 4.75% 2030 Conventional Gilt

May 21 10:10 France Auctions

May 21 15:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 26 May

May 21 15:00 US Announces details of 2-year FRN on 27 May, plus 2/5/7 year

May 21 17:00 US Auctions 10-year TIPs

May 22 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction

May 22 10:00 Norway Details bond auction on 27 May


AUD/USD technical analysis forecast for 20 May


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