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AUD/USD Analysis Forecast, May 25, 2015 – Forecast

audusd friday bnslaAnalysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD gained 28 points to trade at 0.7922 as the US dollar eased as markets hoped for the announcement of new stimulus from China. Otherwise markets are relatively quiet.  Investors were waiting Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s speech on the U.S. economic outlook this Friday to get more clues about the timing of interest rates hike. Economic data out of the United States overnight proved slightly disappointing; with a measure of manufacturing activity falling to its weakest level since January 2014.

New claims for unemployment insurance benefits rose more than expected last week, but remain at a 15-year low, while existing home sales slowed in April.

The U.S. economy has shown signs of strength but its recovery has not been as robust as expected. Soft U.S. data released overnight – weaker-than-expected existing home sales, the manufacturing sector and U.S. Mid-Atlantic business activity – appeared to vindicate the Fed officials’ cautious policy stance. The Fed minutes suggested that a June interest rate hike was unlikely and that policymakers were worried about the outlook for the world´s top economy.

 “Many participants” at the Fed policy meeting “thought it unlikely that the data available in June” would meet conditions required for a rate hike, the minutes said.

 The board expressed concern about weak economic reports in the first quarter, although they were generally viewed as being caused by “transitory” factors, such as severe winter weather and a West Coast port strike that ended in late February.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information for AUD/USD in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  USD

 

FOMC Member Williams

 

 

 

 

 

  JPY

 

BoJ Press Conference  

 

 

 

   

 AUDUSD(15 minutes)20150522062813

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Monday, May 25, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

 

 

 

United States – Memorial Day

 

 

Switzerland – Pentecost Monday

 

 

United Kingdom – Late May Bank Holiday

  JPY

 

Exports (YoY) (Apr)

 

 

8.5%

 

 

  JPY

 

Trade Balance (Apr)

 

 

229B

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 22 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction

May 22 10:00 Norway Details bond auction on 27 May

May 25 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction

May 25 15:30 Italy Announces details of BTP/CCTeu on 28 May

May 26 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction

May 26 09:10 Italy Auctions CTZ/BTPei

May 26 17:00 US Auctions 2-year notes

May 27 09:15 Norway Holds bond auction

May 27 09:30 Germany Eur 2bn 2.5% Aug 2046 Bund

May 27 09:30 UK Auctions 0.125% 2058 I/L Gilt

May 27 16:00 US Auctions 2-year FRNs

May 27 17:00 US Auctions 5-year notes

May 28 09:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

May 28 09:10 Sweden Holds inflation-linked bond auction

May 28 17:00 US Auctions 7-year notes

 

AUD/USD analysis forecast

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