AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis, May 12, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation (AUD/USD Forecast):

The AUD/USD dipped 54 points to trade at 0.7876 after the surprise rate decline by the PBOC over the weekend.  The Australian dollar fell below 79c as worries about the New Zealand economy and Greece’s next repayment weighs on market confidence. Over the weekend, The People’s Bank of China announced it would cut its key interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point. Westpac chief currency strategist Robert Rennie said ordinarily that would be supportive for the Chinese and Australian economies and therefore good news for the Australian dollar.

However he said other factors are proving a drag on the Australian dollar such as a possible rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

The dollar fluctuated in a narrow range amid a lack of major market-moving incentives early trading.   U.S. Labor Department data showed Friday that nonfarm jobs increased 223,000 in April from the previous month, broadly matching market expectations, while the number for March was revised down to 85,000 from 126,000.

”Participants want to confirm the recovery of the U.S. economy by checking the numbers such as April retail sales after the jobs data failed” to boost the U.S. currency, said Yuzo Sakai, manager of foreign exchange business promotion at Tokyo Forex & Ueda Harlow, referring to the upcoming data due out Wednesday.

Although China’s central bank said the previous day it will cut benchmark interest rates by 0.25 percentage point for its third rate cut since last November, its impact on the dollar-yen pair was limited, Sakai said.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review in forex trading. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information for AUD/USD in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  AUD Home Loans (MoM) (Mar) 1.0% 1.2%
  JPY 10-Year JGB Auction 0.369%

 audusd mon

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring in forex trading with AUD/USD:

Tuesday, May 12, 2015

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY) 3.2%
  AUD Home Loans (MoM) (Mar) 1.0% 1.2%
  GBP Industrial Production (MoM) 0.1% 0.1%
  GBP Manufacturing Production 0.3% 0.4%
  USD JOLTs Job Openings (Mar) 5.085M 5.133M
  USD Federal Budget Balance (Apr) 146.5B -53.0B

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 12 09:15 Norway Holds bond auction

May 13 09:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

May 13 09:30 Germany Eur 3bn Feb 2025 Bund

May 13 14:30 Sweden Details bond auction on 20 May

May 14 09:30 UK Auctions 2% 2020 Conventional Gilt

AUD/USD Forecast 2015 Exchange Rate


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