AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis, May 13, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation (AUD/USD Forecast):

The AUD/USD added 18 points to trade at 0.7909 after topping the 80 price last week. The interest rate reduction in China seems to be having a negative effect on the export commodities.  After a mixed  jobs report for April, released last Friday, investors are eyeing a US retail sales report, due Wednesday, for fresh clues on the economy and the timing of a Federal Reserve interest rate increase. The Australian dollar had traded in a “modest range” on Tuesday leading into the federal budget, which is due to be delivered in Canberra later today.

It was unlikely the budget would have much of a short term impact on the currency, unless it had consequences for Australia’s credit rating with the major ratings agencies. Chinese industrial production data for April is due out Wednesday Australian time would be the market’s next focus. The  AUD/USD regained the 0.79 handle, following upbeat Australian home loans data while Fitch ratings confirmed that Australia’s AAA rating is not at risk also boosted the Aussie.

Iron ore’s rally from decade-low offers investors an opportunity to bet against the commodity as prices will resume their decline amid weak demand and rising supplies, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

“Market fundamentals will reassert themselves sooner rather than later,” analysts Christian Lelong and Amber Chai wrote in a report on Monday, maintaining their forecast for prices to average $52 a metric ton this year. “Investors may consider this as a window to take short positions.”

Iron ore rallied into a bull market last month as BHP Billiton Ltd. said that it would curb the pace of its expansion and Vale SA signaled it may cut some higher-cost output. The gains came as stockpiles at ports in China fell to the lowest level in more than a year, and the government boosted stimulus to combat a property-led slowdown by cutting interest rates. Prices remain 67 percent below a 2011 record amid a global glut and concern demand in China may have peaked.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review in forex trading. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  AUD Home Loans (MoM) (Mar) 1.6% 1.0% 1.1%
  JPY 10-Year JGB Auction 0.369%

 AUD/USD chart

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring in forex trading:

Wednesday, May 13, 2015

Cur.   Event Actual Forecast Previous
  NZD RBNZ Gov Wheeler Speaks
  JPY Adjusted Current Account 1.34T 0.60T
  AUD Wage Price Index (QoQ) (Q1) 0.6% 0.6%
  CNY Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) 13.5% 13.5%
  CNY Industrial Production (YoY) 6.0% 5.6%
  EUR German CPI (MoM) (Apr) -0.1% -0.1%
  EUR German GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 0.5% 0.7%
  GBP Claimant Count Change (Apr) -20.0K -20.7K
  GBP Unemployment Rate (Mar) 5.5% 5.6%
  EUR GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 0.5% 0.3%
  EUR Industrial Production (MoM) 0.2% 1.1%
  GBP BoE Inflation Report
  EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting
  USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) 0.5% 0.4%
  USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) 0.2% 0.9%
  USD Crude Oil Inventories -3.882M

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 12 08:10 Dutch Eur 2-3bn 0.25% Jul 2025 DSL

May 12 09:15 Norway Eur 4bn 4.5% May 2019 bond

May 12 09:30 Germany Eur 1bn 0.1% Apr 2026 I/L Bund

May 12 17:00 US USD 24bn 3-year notes

May 13 09:10 Italy Eur 2.5-3bn 0.25% May 2018 & Eur 2-2.5bn 1.35% Apr 2022

BTPs, plus Eur 1-1.5bn 1.65% Mar 2032 & 3.25% Sep 2046

May 13 09:30 Germany Eur 3bn 0.5% Feb 2025 Bund

May 13 14:30 Sweden Details bond auction on 20 May

May 13 17:00 US USD 24bn 10-year notes

May 14 09:00 Ireland Eur 0.75bn 0.8% Mar 2022 IGBs

May 14 09:30 UK GBP 3.75bn 2% Jul 2020 Conventional Gilt

May 14 15:00 US Announces details of 10-year TIPS sale on 21 May

May 14 17:00 US USD 16bn 30-year bond

AUD/USD forecast 2015


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