AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis, May 7, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation: (AUD/USD Forecast)

The AUD/USD gained steadily to trade at 0.7966 seemingly resilient after retail sales missed expectations. Even yesterday’s RBA decision had little effect on the Aussie as it moves towards the 80 level.  The Australian dollar has continued to gather momentum from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s May board meeting on Tuesday, climbing as investors trimmed bets on the prospect of any further rate cuts from the central bank this year.

The rally was primarily driven by analysis of the monetary policy statement delivered by RBA Governor Glenn Stevens on Tuesday, with the central bank abandoning talk of an easing bias after cutting the cash rate to a new record low of 2 per cent.

Given yesterday’s cut was widely expected the market has turned its attention to future moves and it appears few predict any action from the central bank in coming meetings.

China’s services sector increased solidly in April, the strongest expansion in four months but still not enough to offset the fall in manufacturing activity, a private survey has found.

The HSBC China Services business activity index printed at 52.9, up from 52.3 in March. A reading above 50 signals expansion, while a reading below signal contraction.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
Japan – Greenery Day
  NZD Employment Change (QoQ) 0.7% 0.8% 1.2%
  AUD Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) 0.3% 0.4% 0.7%

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Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Thursday, May 7, 2015

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  AUD Employment Change (Apr) 5.0K 37.7K
  AUD Full Employment Change (Apr) 31.5K
  AUD Unemployment Rate (Apr) 6.2% 6.1%
  EUR German Factory Orders (MoM) (Mar) 1.5% -0.9%
  RUB Central Bank reserves (USD) 353.5B
  USD Initial Jobless Claims 280K 262K
  CAD Building Permits (MoM) (Mar) 2.5% -0.9%

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 07 08:30 Spain Auctions 0.5% Oct 2017 Bono, 0.55%

May 07 09:10 France Auctions OATs

May 07 09:10 Sweden Holds inflation-linked bond auction

May 08 10:00 Norway Details bond auction on 12 May

May 08 15:30 Italy Announces details of BTP

May 12 09:15 Norway Holds bond auction

May 13 09:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

May 13 09:30 Germany Eur 3bn Feb 2025 Bund

May 13 14:30 Sweden Details bond auction on 20 May

May 14 09:30 UK Auctions 2% 2020 Conventional Gilt

AUD/USD Exchange Rate

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