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AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis, May 8, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation (AUD/USD Forecast):

The AUD/USD retreated from the 80 level late on Wednesday but regained some of its losses this morning to trade at 0.7991 after a lower than forecast release of jobs data. The Australian dollar has pushed slightly higher after official data showed a rise in the nation’s unemployment rate. Official data from the ABS showed the unemployment rate rose to 6.2 per cent in April.

In the past 24 hours the local currency pushed above 0.800 for just the second time since January. Driving the push beyond 0.800 was weak US data, which weighed on the world’s reserve currency.

Private employment data and productivity numbers both disappointed and put pressure on the US dollar against a basket of key global currencies.

The US dollar weakness aided a fresh surge in commodity prices, with iron ore and oil among those moving higher overnight. The strength in commodities helped carry the local unit’s momentum from steady local retail spending numbers released yesterday as well as expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia may not reduce rates for the remainder of the year after it removed its easing bias after cutting rates on Tuesday.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  AUD Employment Change (Apr) -2.9K 5.0K 48.2K
  AUD Full Employment Change (Apr) -21.9K 41.3K
  AUD Unemployment Rate (Apr) 6.2% 6.2% 6.1%

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Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Friday, May 8, 2015

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  CNY Trade Balance (Apr) 39.45B 3.08B
  USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Apr) 224K 126K
  USD Unemployment Rate (Apr) 5.4% 5.5%
  CAD Employment Change (Apr) -5.0K 28.7K

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 07 08:30 Spain Auctions 0.5% Oct 2017 Bono, 0.55%

May 07 09:10 France Auctions OATs

May 07 09:10 Sweden Holds inflation-linked bond auction

May 08 10:00 Norway Details bond auction on 12 May

May 08 15:30 Italy Announces details of BTP

May 12 09:15 Norway Holds bond auction

May 13 09:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

May 13 09:30 Germany Eur 3bn Feb 2025 Bund

May 13 14:30 Sweden Details bond auction on 20 May

May 14 09:30 UK Auctions 2% 2020 Conventional Gilt

AUD/USD Exchange Rate

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