Analysis and Recommendations (Copper Analysis Forecast):
Copper took a major hit as the US dollar surged pushing copper down 41 points to 2.866. Palladium fell $7.20 following the overall trend in commodities and is trading at 785.80. Losses were limited by signs of potentially stronger demand and expectations of further policy easing by top consumer China.
The higher U.S. currency makes dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies. “It’s a softer start to the week. The stronger dollar is weighing on base metals, which are ignoring the oil price rise,” Danske Bank analyst Jens Pederson said.
A rising oil price has supported industrial metals in recent days because it increases the energy costs of metal production.
China is the largest consumer of base metals, absorbing almost half of global demand for those raw materials. A Chinese economic recovery from here, largely unexpected by global investors, would be a game changer for base metals. While a hard landing in China is now being seen more and more unlikely, many market participants are still expecting a gloomier outcome for the country this year. This has prevented base metals from performing as well as the energy sector did during the past few weeks. However, this less-than-positive perception of China’s prospects in 2015 may soon change.
China, meanwhile, is being watched closely for stimulus measures in addition to the central bank’s recent interest rate cut and a reduction in the amount banks must hold as cash in an attempt to spur lending.
Analysts are also watching stocks of copper in exchange warehouses.
ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review in forex tyrading . Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information for copper in our weekly reports.
Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:
|NZD||PPI Input (QoQ) (Q1)||-1.1%||-0.7%||-0.4%|
|AUD||Monetary Policy Meeting|
|NZD||Inflation Expectations (QoQ)||1.9%||1.8%|
|GBP||CPI (MoM) (Apr)||0.2%||0.4%||0.2%|
|GBP||CPI (YoY) (Apr)||-0.1%||0.0%||0.0%|
|GBP||PPI Input (MoM) (Apr)||0.4%||0.8%||0.4%|
|EUR||German ZEW Current Conditions||65.7||68.0||70.2|
|EUR||German ZEW Economic||41.9||49.0||53.3|
|EUR||Core CPI (YoY) (Apr)||0.6%||0.6%||0.6%|
|EUR||CPI (YoY) (Apr)||0.0%||0.0%||0.0%|
|EUR||CPI (MoM) (Apr)||0.2%||0.2%||1.1%|
|EUR||Trade Balance (Mar)||23.4B||22.8B||20.3B|
|EUR||ZEW Economic Sentiment||61.2||62.4||64.8|
Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring for copper in forex trading:
Wednesday, May 20, 2015
|JPY||GDP (QoQ) (Q1)||0.4%||0.4%|
|JPY||GDP (YoY) (Q1)||1.5%||1.5%|
|AUD||Westpac Consumer Sentiment||-3.2%|
|EUR||German PPI (MoM) (Apr)||0.2%||0.1%|
|GBP||BoE MPC Meeting Minutes|
|CAD||Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Mar)||0.7%||-0.4%|
|USD||Crude Oil Inventories||-2.191M|
|USD||FOMC Meeting Minutes|
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
May 20 09:03 Sweden Holds bond auction
May 21 08:30 Spain Auctions Bonos
May 21 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction
May 21 09:10 France Auctions BTANs
May 21 09:30 UK Auctions 4.75% 2030 Conventional Gilt
May 21 10:10 France Auctions
May 21 15:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 26 May
May 21 15:00 US Announces details of 2-year FRN on 27 May, plus 2/5/7 year
May 21 17:00 US Auctions 10-year TIPs
May 22 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction
May 22 10:00 Norway Details bond auction on 27 May
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