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Crude & Brent Oil Analysis Forecast, June 04, 2015 – Forecast

Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis, June 04, 2015 - Forecast

Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis, June 04, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations (Crude Forecast):

Crude Oil declined $1.11 ahead of today’s inventory report as traders reviewed yesterday’s API data. Brent Oil dipped $1.04 as comments from OPEC seemed to indicate that they will remain on course.  Late Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute reported an unexpected 1.8-million-barrel increase in U.S. oil stocks for last week. The more closely watched data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration is due later Wednesday. Analysts polled by The Wall Street Journal expect inventories to fall by 1.6 million barrels.

U.S. oil inventory data, along with oil production levels, affect oil prices as traders and investors have been looking for any sign of how the U.S. shale industry will respond to lower oil prices.

OPEC’s secretary-general said on Wednesday that its policy isn’t targeted and the organization welcomes all producers. When OPEC decided last November not to cut its output despite the rout in prices, many observers saw this as the first salvo in a battle for market share with the booming U.S. shale industry and other global suppliers.

Most analysts expect this strategy to be reaffirmed at Friday’s meeting. “We expect OPEC to leave its 30 million barrels a day target unchanged on Friday,” said analysts at Barclays.

But while lower oil prices have significantly slowed drilling activity in the U.S. and demand for oil has risen, turbulent waters lie ahead for the oil cartel, the bank said.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information for Crude in our weekly reports.

WEEKLY

This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  AUD

 

GDP (QoQ) (Q1)

0.9%

0.7%

0.5%

 

 

  AUD

 

GDP (YoY) (Q1)

2.3%

2.1%

2.5%

 

 

  CNY

 

HSBC Services PMI (May)

53.5

53.3

52.9

 

 

  GBP

 

Nationwide HPI (MoM) (May)

0.3%

0.3%

1.0%

 

 

  GBP

 

Nationwide HPI (YoY) (May)

4.6%

4.7%

5.2%

 

 

  RUB

 

HSBC Services PMI (May)

52.8

48.0

50.7

 

 

  EUR

 

Spanish Services PMI (May)

58.4

59.3

60.3

 

 

  EUR

 

German Services PMI (May)

53.0

52.9

52.9

 

 

  EUR

 

Markit Composite PMI (May)

53.6

53.4

53.4

 

 

  EUR

 

Services PMI (May)

53.8

53.3

53.3

 

 

  GBP

 

Services PMI (May)

56.5

59.2

59.5

 

 

  EUR

 

Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)

0.7%

0.7%

-0.6%

   

  EUR

 

Unemployment Rate (Apr)

11.1%

11.2%

11.2%

   

  EUR

 

Interest Rate Decision (Jun)

0.05%

0.05%

0.05%

 

 

  USD

 

ADP Nonfarm Employment

201K

200K

165K

   

  USD

 

Trade Balance (Apr)

-40.88B

-44.00B

-50.57B

   

  CAD

 

Trade Balance (Apr)

-2.97B

-2.10B

-3.85B

   

  EUR

 

ECB Press Conference  

 

 

 

 

 

 oil wed

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Thursday, June 04, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  JPY

 

BoJ Governor Kuroda Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  AUD

 

Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)

 

0.4%

0.3%

 

 

  AUD

 

Trade Balance (Apr)

 

-2.250B

-1.322B

 

 

  GBP

 

BoE QE Total (Jun)

 

375B

375B

 

 

  GBP

 

Interest Rate Decision (Jun)

 

0.50%

0.50%

 

 

  RUB

 

CPI (MoM)

 

0.4%

0.5%

 

 

  RUB

 

CPI (YoY)

 

15.9%

16.4%

 

 

  RUB

 

Central Bank reserves (USD)

 

 

360.5B

 

 

  USD

 

Initial Jobless Claims

 

279K

282K

 

 

  USD

 

Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ)

 

-2.9%

-1.9%

 

 

  USD

 

Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q1)

 

5.9%

5.0%

 

 

  CAD

 

Ivey PMI (May)

 

55.5

58.2

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Jun 04 11:10 France Eur 8-9bn 1.75% May 2023

Jun 04 11:30 UK Gbp 750mn 4.25% 2055 mini-Gilt tender

Jun 08 12:00 Norway Details bond auction on 10 Jun

Jun 08 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTP/CCTeu on 11 June

Jun 09 11:10 Austria Holds RAGB bond sale

Jun 09 11:30 UK Auctions 0.125% 2024 I/L Gilt

Jun 10 11:15 Norway Holds bond auction

Jun 10 11:30 Germany Eur 5bn Jun 2017 Schatz

Jun 10 16:30 Sweden Details bond auction on 17 June

Jun 11 11:30 Spain Auctions Bonos

Jun 11 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

Jun 11 11:10 Sweden Holds inflation-linked bond auction

Jun 11 11:30 UK Auctions 3.5% 2045 Conventional Gilt

Jun 11 17:00 US Announces details of 30-year TIPs sale on 18 Jun

 

 

Crude analysis forecast

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