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Crude & Brent Oil Analysis Forecast – June 9, 2015 – Forecast

Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis – June 9, 2015 - Forecast

Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis – June 9, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations (Crude Forecast):

Crude Oil stayed in the red at 58.76 down by 38 cents holding losses since the Asian session. Brent Oil is down 23 cents recovering from some of its declines earlier in the day. Brent is trading at 63.08. Oil prices tumbled 5% in the previous two sessions as investors expected world oversupply to continue. With oil prices having rebounded by more than a third after hitting a six-year low of $45 a barrel in January, OPEC officials in Vienna see little reason to tinker with what they see as a successful production strategy. Lower oil prices have helped support growth in fuel consumption and put a damper on the US shale boom.

Oil prices started to declined after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries decided to maintain their output level, while Iran said it is ready to double oil exports if sanctions were lifted. In a meeting on 5 June, the 12-member oil price cartel decided to go ahead with its production target, as prices recovered from a record plunge experienced in June 2014. The countries have resolved to continue oil production at a rate of 30 million barrels per day.

Meanwhile, Iran’s state-run Islamic Republic News Agency reported that the country may double its overseas oil sales within six months of international sanctions ending, even if prices decline.

Sanctions were imposed on the Middle Eastern country over its nuclear program. Iran and world powers are expected to reach an agreement on curbing Iran’s nuclear enhancement before the 30 June deadline.

Despite having the world’s fourth-largest oil reserves, Iran’s oil exports have fallen significantly due to the sanctions. Exports have declined to 1.3 million barrels per day from more than 2.2 million barrels in 2011.

A firm dollar is also keeping a lid on the price of commodities priced in the greenback by making them more expensive for the holders of other currencies. The dollar traded near 13-year high against the yen after strong US employment data bolstered expectations for an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve before year-end. Investor sentiment was bearish.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information for Crude in our weekly reports.

WEEKLY

This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

 

 

 

Australia – Queen’s Birthday

  JPY

 

Adjusted Current Account

1.27T

1.45T

2.07T

 

 

  JPY

 

Current Account (Apr)

1.326T

1.696T

2.795T

 

 

  JPY

 

GDP (YoY) (Q1)

3.9%

2.7%

2.4%

 

 

  JPY

 

GDP (QoQ) (Q1)

1.0%

0.7%

0.6%

 

 

  CNY

 

Exports (YoY) (May)

-2.5%

-5.0%

-6.4%

 

 

  CNY

 

Imports (YoY) (May)

-17.6%

-10.7%

-16.2%

 

 

  CNY

 

Trade Balance (May)

59.49B

44.95B

34.13B

 

 

  EUR

 

German Industrial Production

0.9%

0.5%

-0.4%

   

  EUR

 

German Trade Balance (Apr)

22.3B

19.4B

19.4B

   

oil mon

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Tuesday, June 09, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  GBP

 

BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY)

 

 

-2.4%

 

 

  AUD

 

Home Loans (MoM) (Apr)

 

-2.0%

1.6%

 

 

  AUD

 

NAB Business Confidence (May)

 

 

3

 

 

  CNY

 

CPI (MoM) (May)

 

 

-0.2%

 

 

  CNY

 

CPI (YoY) (May)

 

1.3%

1.5%

 

 

  CNY

 

PPI (YoY) (May)

 

-4.5%

-4.6%

 

 

  CHF

 

Unemployment Rate n.s.a.

 

 

3.3%

 

 

  CHF

 

CPI (MoM) (May)

 

0.1%

-0.2%

 

 

  GBP

 

Trade Balance (Apr)

 

-9.85B

-10.12B

 

 

  GBP

 

Trade Balance Non-EU (Apr)

 

-3.00B

-3.16B

 

 

  EUR

 

GDP (YoY) (Q1)

 

1.0%

1.0%

 

 

  EUR

 

GDP (QoQ) (Q1)

 

0.4%

0.4%

 

 

  USD

 

JOLTs Job Openings (Apr)

 

 

4.994M

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Jun 09 11:10 Austria Holds RAGB bond sale

Jun 09 11:30 UK Auctions 0.125% 2024 I/L Gilt

Jun 10 11:15 Norway Holds bond auction

Jun 10 11:30 Germany Eur 5bn Jun 2017 Schatz

Jun 10 16:30 Sweden Details bond auction on 17 June

Jun 11 11:30 Spain Auctions Bonos

Jun 11 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

Jun 11 11:10 Sweden Holds inflation-linked bond auction

Jun 11 11:30 UK Auctions 3.5% 2045 Conventional Gilt

Jun 11 17:00 US Announces details of 30-year TIPs sale on 18 Jun

 

 

Crude analysis forecast

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