Analysis and Recommendations (Crude Oil Forecast):
Crude Oil continued to gain adding 70 cents as the US dollar weakened. Crude oil is trading at 61.45 while Brent Oil is up by 58 cents at 67.97. The EIA forecasts that total oil output from seven major shale plays will decline by 86,000 barrels a day in June. Read: Shale oil output at Bakken and Eagle Ford starts a descent.
Oil’s rally intensified in late-morning trading. It was likely a “geopolitical fear bid after renewed airstrikes were reported in Yemen just hours before a new cease-fire was to be initiated,” said Tyler Richey, an analyst for the 7:00’s Report.
Meanwhile, analysts polled by Platts expect the EIA’s weekly inventory report due Wednesday to show a fall of 250,000 barrels in crude inventories.
Oil-market fundamentals, however, remain weak, Goldman Sachs said in a report. The bank estimates the global oil market will be oversupplied by 1.9 million barrels a day in the current quarter, the largest quarterly stock build this year. Goldman also said that WTI settling above $60 could lead to U.S. producers ramping up activity again.
The API released the crude oil inventory report on May 5, 2015. The data showed that the US crude oil stockpile dropped by 1.5 million barrels for the week ending May 1. Crude oil inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma—the delivery hub for US futures—was also expected to drop by 336,000 barrels last week. The drop in inventories supported crude oil’s price movement yesterday.
ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review in forex trading. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information for Crude Oil in our weekly reports.
This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday.
Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:
|NZD||RBNZ Gov Wheeler Speaks|
|JPY||Current Account n.s.a. (Mar)||2.795T||2.060T||1.440T|
|AUD||Wage Price Index (QoQ) (Q1)||0.5%||0.6%||0.6%|
|CNY||Fixed Asset Investment (YoY)||12.0%||13.5%||13.5%|
|CNY||Industrial Production (YoY)||5.9%||6.0%||5.6%|
|EUR||German CPI (MoM) (Apr)||0.0%||-0.1%||-0.1%|
|EUR||German GDP (YoY) (Q1)||1.1%||1.2%||1.6%|
|EUR||German GDP (QoQ) (Q1)||0.3%||0.5%||0.7%|
|CNY||New Loans (Apr)||707.9B||903.0B||1,180.0B|
|GBP||Average Earnings Index +Bonus||1.9%||1.7%||1.7%|
|GBP||Claimant Count Change (Apr)||-12.6K||-20.0K||-16.7K|
|GBP||Unemployment Rate (Mar)||5.5%||5.5%||5.6%|
|EUR||GDP (QoQ) (Q1)||0.5%||0.3%|
|EUR||Industrial Production (MoM)||0.2%||1.1%|
|GBP||BoE Gov Carney Speaks|
|GBP||BoE Inflation Report|
|EUR||Monetary Policy Meeting|
Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring for Crude Oil in forex trading:
Thursday, May 14, 2015
|NZD||Business NZ PMI (Apr)||54.5|
|NZD||Core Retail Sales (QoQ)||1.5%||1.5%|
|NZD||Retail Sales (QoQ) (Q1)||1.5%||1.7%|
|GBP||RICS House Price Balance (Apr)||22%||21%|
|USD||Core PPI (MoM) (Apr)||0.1%||0.2%|
|USD||Initial Jobless Claims||275K||265K|
|USD||PPI (MoM) (Apr)||0.2%||0.2%|
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
May 14 09:00 Ireland Eur 0.75bn 0.8% Mar 2022 IGBs
May 14 09:30 UK GBP 3.75bn 2% Jul 2020 Conventional Gilt
May 14 15:00 US Announces details of 10-year TIPS sale on 21 May
May 14 17:00 US USD 16bn 30-year bond
May 18 09:30 Germany Eur 1.5bn 12M (May 2016) Bubills
May 18 10:00 Belgium Auctions OLOs
Crude Oil analysis forecast
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