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Crude & Brent Oil Analysis Forecast, May 18, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations (Oil Forecast):

Crude Oil dipped 27 cents today to reach 59.62 while Brent Oil fell only 4 cents to 66.66. Oil fell for a again today after the biggest drop in U.S. refinery activity in four months cut crude demand. Refinery utilization slowed by 1.8 percentage points last week, the biggest decline since Jan. 16, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said Wednesday.

Oil supply from both the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and U.S. shale drillers is set to expand later this year, weighing on prices, hedge fund manager Pierre Andurand said.

Oil’s recovery from a six-year low is stalling near $60 a barrel amid speculation that the price rebound will sustain a supply glut. U.S. crude stockpiles remain more than 100 million barrels above the five-year average for this time of year and producers are pumping near a record pace.

Despite a slight draw in overall stocks, government data showed that U.S. crude inventories of almost 485 million barrels were still nearly 90 million barrels higher than this time last year, implying low demand for domestic production as well as imports.

Yesterday, the crude oil momentum shifted downwards. Bears could see important support at $58 per barrel. Prices hit this level in April 2015. Oversupply concerns will continue to put pressure on oil prices. In contrast, imports from China and the depreciating dollar could push oil to the key resistance of $66 per barrel. Prices hit this level in May 2009.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review in forex trading. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information for Crude Oil in our weekly reports.

 

WEEKLY

This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday.

 

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  JPY BoJ Governor Kuroda Speaks
  CHF PPI (MoM) (Apr) -2.1% -0.1% 0.2%
  USD NY Empire State Manufacturing   5.00 -1.19  
  USD Industrial Production (MoM)   0.1% -0.6%  
  USD Michigan Consumer   88.6 88.8  

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring for Crude Oil in forex trading:

Monday, May 18, 2015

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  AUD RBA Assist Gov Lowe Speaks
  JPY Industrial Production (MoM) -0.3%
  JPY Tertiary Industry Activity Index 0.3%
  CHF Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar) -2.7%

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 18 09:30 Germany Eur 1.5bn 12M (May 2016) Bubills

May 18 10:00 Belgium Auctions OLOs

May 20 09:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

May 21 08:30 Spain Auctions Bonos

May 21 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction

May 21 09:10 France Auctions BTANs

May 21 09:30 UK Auctions 4.75% 2030 Conventional Gilt

May 21 10:10 France Auctions

May 21 15:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 26 May

May 21 15:00 US Announces details of 2-year FRN on 27 May, plus 2/5/7 year

May 21 17:00 US Auctions 10-year TIPs

May 22 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction

May 22 10:00 Norway Details bond auction on 27 May

 

Crude oil analysis forecast

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