Analysis and Recommendations (Oil Forecast):
Crude Oil dipped 27 cents today to reach 59.62 while Brent Oil fell only 4 cents to 66.66. Oil fell for a again today after the biggest drop in U.S. refinery activity in four months cut crude demand. Refinery utilization slowed by 1.8 percentage points last week, the biggest decline since Jan. 16, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said Wednesday.
Oil supply from both the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and U.S. shale drillers is set to expand later this year, weighing on prices, hedge fund manager Pierre Andurand said.
Oil’s recovery from a six-year low is stalling near $60 a barrel amid speculation that the price rebound will sustain a supply glut. U.S. crude stockpiles remain more than 100 million barrels above the five-year average for this time of year and producers are pumping near a record pace.
Despite a slight draw in overall stocks, government data showed that U.S. crude inventories of almost 485 million barrels were still nearly 90 million barrels higher than this time last year, implying low demand for domestic production as well as imports.
Yesterday, the crude oil momentum shifted downwards. Bears could see important support at $58 per barrel. Prices hit this level in April 2015. Oversupply concerns will continue to put pressure on oil prices. In contrast, imports from China and the depreciating dollar could push oil to the key resistance of $66 per barrel. Prices hit this level in May 2009.
ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review in forex trading. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information for Crude Oil in our weekly reports.
This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday.
Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:
|JPY||BoJ Governor Kuroda Speaks|
|CHF||PPI (MoM) (Apr)||-2.1%||-0.1%||0.2%|
|USD||NY Empire State Manufacturing||5.00||-1.19|
|USD||Industrial Production (MoM)||0.1%||-0.6%|
Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring for Crude Oil in forex trading:
Monday, May 18, 2015
|AUD||RBA Assist Gov Lowe Speaks|
|JPY||Industrial Production (MoM)||-0.3%|
|JPY||Tertiary Industry Activity Index||0.3%|
|CHF||Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar)||-2.7%|
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
May 18 09:30 Germany Eur 1.5bn 12M (May 2016) Bubills
May 18 10:00 Belgium Auctions OLOs
May 20 09:03 Sweden Holds bond auction
May 21 08:30 Spain Auctions Bonos
May 21 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction
May 21 09:10 France Auctions BTANs
May 21 09:30 UK Auctions 4.75% 2030 Conventional Gilt
May 21 10:10 France Auctions
May 21 15:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 26 May
May 21 15:00 US Announces details of 2-year FRN on 27 May, plus 2/5/7 year
May 21 17:00 US Auctions 10-year TIPs
May 22 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction
May 22 10:00 Norway Details bond auction on 27 May
Crude oil analysis forecast
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