Analysis and Recommendations (Crude Oil Brent Oil Forecast):
Crude Oil added 21 cents to trade at 60.75 while Brent Oil remained flat at 66.79. Crude oil prices edged up on Monday following fighting in Iraq and Yemen, but Iranian comments that OPEC was unlikely to cut output as well as signs of strengthening US production capped gains. Prices were supported by concerns that conflict in Iraq and Yemen could disrupt supplies after Islamic State militants said they had taken control of the Iraqi city of Ramadi in a big blow to the government. In Yemen, a Saudi-led coalition resumed air strikes against Houthi militia in Aden, a port-city on the shores of key Middle East oil routes. Despite these Middle East conflicts, analysts said oil markets remained oversupplied, and that the glut could worsen if US -production picked up and output by producer-club OPEC remained strong. “Oil prices appear to have outpaced the improvement in underlying fundamentals,” Barclays said on Monday.
Iran’s Deputy Oil Minister Rokneddin Javadi told Reuters on Monday that OPEC was unlikely to cut output at its next meeting in June, and that Iran hoped its crude exports would return to pre-sanctions levels of 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) within three months once a deal to lift an oil embargo is finalized.
The advances on Monday came after Islamic State seized control of the western city of Ramadi, the capital of Iraq’s largest province. The victory is seen as a crushing setback to U.S.-backed efforts to halt the spread of the extremist group.
Meanwhile, in Yemen, a Saudi Arabia-led coalition resumed airstrikes against Houthi fighters, according to media reports, after a five-day cease-fire between the two sides ended on Sunday night. Conflicts in the Middle East tend to increase worries about oil supply from the region, lending support to oil prices that are largely driven by the supply-and-demand balance.
ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review in forex trading. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information for Crude Oil in our weekly reports.
This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday.
Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:
|AUD||RBA Assist Gov Lowe Speaks|
|JPY||Industrial Production (MoM)||-0.8%||-0.3%||-0.3%|
|JPY||Tertiary Industry Activity Index||-1.0%||-0.5%||0.4%|
|CHF||Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar)||-2.8%||-2.0%||-3.1%|
Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring for Oil in forex trading:
Tuesday, May 19, 2015
|AUD||Monetary Policy Minutes|
|GBP||CPI (YoY) (Apr)|
|EUR||German ZEW Economic||49.0||53.3|
|EUR||CPI (YoY) (Apr)||0.0%||0.0%|
|USD||Building Permits (Apr)||1.065M||1.042M|
|CAD||BoC Gov Poloz Speaks|
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
May 20 09:03 Sweden Holds bond auction
May 21 08:30 Spain Auctions Bonos
May 21 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction
May 21 09:10 France Auctions BTANs
May 21 09:30 UK Auctions 4.75% 2030 Conventional Gilt
May 21 10:10 France Auctions
May 21 15:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 26 May
May 21 15:00 US Announces details of 2-year FRN on 27 May, plus 2/5/7 year
May 21 17:00 US Auctions 10-year TIPs
May 22 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction
May 22 10:00 Norway Details bond auction on 27 May
Crude analysis forecast
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