Analysis and Recommendations (Oil Forecast):
Crude Oil recovered 60 cents to trade at 58.59 as Brent Oil gained 81 cents to reach 64.83 both oils are below their recent highs as traders look into the fundamentals of supply and demand. The market has lately missed any stronger impulses that would either support or undermine the price. For example, yesterday’s sharp reversion of early gains suggests that room for prospective further gains of Brent is rather limited. This has also been suggested by the latest ICE Commitment of Traders report. Although the net speculative position in Brent futures declined, the report also showed that number of traders betting on the price decline fell quite sharply over the past two weeks (see the chart below). This in our view suggests that the risks for oil price are tilted rather to the downside.
Oil traders stressed over the potential for a recovery in U.S. shale-oil production and mulled the outcome of next month’s meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. Islamic State seized control of the western city of Ramadi, the capital of Iraq’s largest province, and in Yemen, a Saudi Arabia-led coalition resumed airstrikes against Houthi fighters, according to media reports.
But last week, U.S. data showed that May consumer sentiment tumbled to a seven-month low, April retail sales were flat and April industrial production dropped.
The oil market will be keeping an eye on this week’s data. They include housing starts Tuesday, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee minutes from the April meeting due Wednesday and the consumer price index Friday.
ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information for Crude in our weekly reports.
This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday.
Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:
|AUD||RBA Assist Gov Lowe Speaks|
|JPY||GDP (YoY) (Q1)||2.4%||1.5%||1.1%|
|JPY||GDP (QoQ) (Q1)||0.6%||0.4%||0.3%|
|AUD||Westpac Consumer Sentiment (May)||6.4%||-3.2%|
|EUR||German PPI (MoM) (Apr)||0.1%||0.2%||0.1%|
|GBP||BoE MPC vote cut (May)||0||0||0|
|GBP||BoE MPC vote hike (May)||0||0||0|
|GBP||BoE MPC vote unchanged (May)||9||9||9|
|GBP||BoE MPC Meeting Minutes|
Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:
Thursday, May 21, 2015
|CNY||HSBC Manufacturing PMI||49.3||48.9|
|EUR||German Manufacturing PMI||52.3||52.1|
|GBP||Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)||0.4%||-0.5%|
|USD||Existing Home Sales (Apr)||5.24M||5.19M|
|USD||Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing||8.0||7.5|
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
May 21 08:30 Spain Auctions Bonos
May 21 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction
May 21 09:10 France Auctions BTANs
May 21 09:30 UK Auctions 4.75% 2030 Conventional Gilt
May 21 10:10 France Auctions
May 21 15:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 26 May
May 21 15:00 US Announces details of 2-year FRN on 27 May, plus 2/5/7 year
May 21 17:00 US Auctions 10-year TIPs
May 22 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction
May 22 10:00 Norway Details bond auction on 27 May
Crude analysis forecast
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