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Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis, May 11, 2015 – Forecast

oil friday bnsnlaAnalysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil recovered from its rout in the Asian session to trade down just 9 cents after its harsh decline on Thursday as traders booked profits. Crude oil is trading at 58.86. Brent Oil eased just 13 cents to 65.41 after touching the $67 price just days ago.  Crude turned reversed on Friday as traders awaited the release of U.S. nonfarm-payrolls data later in the day, which could determine the short-term strength of the dollar.

Oil prices slipped earlier in the day, but the commodity could recover if the payrolls data were weak, Ang said. A poor jobs report is likely to weaken the dollar, which could boost buying interest in oil.

There are also supply-side concerns. The chance of a rebound in U.S. oil rigs and output has actually increased, as oil prices have generally been rising over the past one-and-a-half months. Output from other large producers, such as Iraq, is also rising, adding to already ample supplies in the market.

Trading sentiment turned weak at the futures trade after oil prices were mixed in Asian trade today, coming under pressure following sharp losses in the previous session owing to continued worries about global oversupply, analysts said.

China’s crude oil imports hit a record high in April as falling prices encouraged stockpiling, but coal imports plunged and shipments of other commodities generally eased on a year earlier amid a sluggish economy.

China’s exports unexpectedly fell 6.4 percent for the month, while imports tumbled by a deeper-than-forecast 16.2 percent, fueling expectations that Beijing will quickly roll out more stimulus to avert a sharper economic slowdown. China, the world’s second-largest crude oil buyer, imported a higher-than-expected 7.4 million barrels per day in April, up 8.6 percent on a year ago, as oil firms built up stocks despite tepid underlying refined fuel demand, especially for diesel.

With oil prices down 40 percent from last June’s highs, China has been adding to its strategic reserves, although some analysts say imports may now pull back as the country starts to run out of storage space.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

WEEKLY

This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  JPY

 

Monetary Policy Meeting

 

 

 

 

 

  AUD

 

RBA Monetary Statement  

 

 

 

 

 

  CNY

 

Exports (YoY) (Apr)

-6.4%

2.4%

-15.0%

 

 

  CNY

 

Imports (YoY) (Apr)

-16.2%

-12.0%

-12.7%

 

 

  CNY

 

Trade Balance (Apr)

34.13B

39.45B

3.08B

 

 

  EUR

 

German Industrial Production

-0.5%

0.4%

0.2%

 

 

  EUR

 

German Trade Balance (Mar)

19.3B

20.0B

20.0B

   

  GBP

 

Halifax House Price Index (YoY)

8.5%

7.8%

8.1%

 

 

  GBP

 

Halifax House Price Index

1.6%

0.4%

0.6%

   

  GBP

 

Trade Balance (Mar)

 

-9.80B

-10.34B

 

 

  GBP

 

Trade Balance Non-EU (Mar)

 

-2.95B

-3.24B

   

 oil fri

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Monday, May 11, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

 

 

 

Russia – Victory Day

  AUD

 

NAB Business Confidence (Apr)

 

 

3

 

 

  GBP

 

BoE QE Total (May)

 

 

375B

 

 

  GBP

 

Interest Rate Decision (May)

 

0.50%

0.50%

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 12 09:15 Norway Holds bond auction

May 13 09:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

May 13 09:30 Germany Eur 3bn Feb 2025 Bund

May 13 14:30 Sweden Details bond auction on 20 May

May 14 09:30 UK Auctions 2% 2020 Conventional Gilt

 

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