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Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis, May 12, 2015 – Forecast

Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis, May 12, 2015 - Forecast

Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis, May 12, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil dipped 40 cents but is basically directionless and without conviction as the new week starts while Brent Oil  eased 43 cents with the same sentiment.  “No one can set the price of oil,” said Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi earlier this week. “It’s up to Allah.” Which is an interesting comment given Saudi Arabia’s insistence on boosting high levels of production since last year. The strategy has maintained a global supply glut, playing a key role in the dramatic lowering of oil prices. Although the Saudis have recently increased official selling prices in response to stronger demand, al-Naimi made clear that they have no plans to curb production.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is not able to fulfill its obligations any more, Behrooz Abdolvand, research director at Berlin Centre for Caspian Region Studies said. “OPEC has lost much of its importance during the last 30 years,” Abdolvand told Trend. He reminded that the global oil demand was 60 million barrels per day in 1970s and the OPEC produced half of it. “Now the global demand is 92 million barrels per day and the OPEC produces only one third of it.”

The low-oil-price environment that has prevailed in recent months has presented significant short-term challenges, including squeezed margins and collapsing activity levels, to producers of U.S. shale oil. We believe, however, that an extended period of low oil prices might actually help reset the industry, in terms of the characteristics and pace of its growth, for the better and place it on a more sustainable development path for the medium term.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

WEEKLY

This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  EUR

 

ECB’s Nowotny Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  GBP

 

BoE QE Total (May)

 375B

375B

375B

 

 

  GBP

 

Interest Rate Decision (May)

 0.50%

0.50%

0.50%

   

Crude Oil(15 minutes)20150511091418 Brent Oil(15 minutes)20150511091615

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Tuesday, May 12, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  GBP

 

BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY)

 

 

3.2%

 

 

  AUD

 

Home Loans (MoM) (Mar)

 

1.0%

1.2%

 

 

  GBP

 

Industrial Production (MoM)

 

0.1%

0.1%

 

 

  GBP

 

Manufacturing Production

 

0.3%

0.4%

 

 

  USD

 

JOLTs Job Openings (Mar)

 

5.085M

5.133M

 

 

  USD

 

Federal Budget Balance (Apr)

 

146.5B

-53.0B

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 12 09:15 Norway Holds bond auction

May 13 09:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

May 13 09:30 Germany Eur 3bn Feb 2025 Bund

May 13 14:30 Sweden Details bond auction on 20 May

May 14 09:30 UK Auctions 2% 2020 Conventional Gilt

 

 

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