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Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis May 5, 2015 – Forecast

Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis May 5, 2015 – Forecast

Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis May 5, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil gained 27 cents after the Asian session to trade at 59.42 trying to best the $60.00 support level. Brent Oil gained 36 cents to reach $66.82. Oil prices moved higher in European trade Monday, reaching five-month highs amid stronger signs of economic growth in the eurozone. Earlier in the day, weak manufacturing data from China, one of the world’s largest importers of crude oil, briefly interrupted the recent rally in crude oil prices.

Oil prices had fallen in weekend trading after Iraq’s Ministry of Petroleum announced its crude oil exports have hit a record in April.  During weekend trading, June Brent crude fell 32 cents to settle at USD 66.46 a barrel. Brent price had experienced a 21-percent jump in April.

However, both Brent and US crude settled well above intraday lows, after data was released showing another reduction in drilling rig activity and there were also news of a shut gasoline-making unit in Venezuela.

Oil prices moved higher in European trade on Monday, reaching five-month highs amid stronger signs of economic growth in the eurozone.

Earlier in the day, weak manufacturing data from China, one of the world’s largest importers of crude oil, briefly interrupted the recent rally in crude oil prices. But robust manufacturing data from Europe turned sentiment around.

Data firm Markit, which surveys more than 3,000 manufacturers across the eurozone, said its purchasing managers index was at 52.0 for April, down from 52.2 in March but still higher than the 51.9 figure Markit estimated. A reading below 50.0 indicates business activity is declining, while a reading above that level implies it is increasing.

Stronger economic growth in Europe helps build on the perception among some in the market that supply and demand in global markets may be coming back into alignment. A glut of oil combined with weaker growth led to a plunge in oil prices from June 2014 to January 2015, but prices have recovered, albeit partially, since then. Some analysts warn that investors shouldn’t get carried away.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

WEEKLY

This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

 

 

 

United Kingdom – Early May Bank Holiday

  CNY

 

HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Apr)

48.9

49.4

49.2

 

 

  EUR

 

German Manufacturing PMI

 

51.9

51.9

   

 oil monday

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Tuesday, May 5, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  AUD

 

Interest Rate Decision (May)

 

2.00%

2.25%

 

 

  GBP

 

Construction PMI (Apr)

 

57.5

57.8

 

 

  USD

 

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

 

56.5

56.5

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 05 11:15 Austria Holds RAGB bond sale

May 06 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

May 06 11:30 Germany Eur 5bn Jun 2017 Schatz

May 07 10:30 Spain Auctions Bonos

May 07 11:10 France Auctions OATs

May 07 11:10 Sweden Holds inflation-linked bond auction

May 08 12:00 Norway Details bond auction on 12 May

May 08 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTP/CCTeu on 13 Ma

 

 

 

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