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Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis, May 6, 2015 – Forecast

Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis, May 6, 2015 - Forecast

Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis, May 6, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil continued in the green in the Asian session but seemed to be sitting tight after European markets opened. Crude oil is at 59.35 up by 41 cents while Brent Oil gained 34 points to trade at 66.80. Oil futures tallied their largest monthly gain in almost six years late last week, mainly because of a weekly decline in crude inventories at the U.S. storage hub.

But prices slipped Monday as a monthly decline in Chinese manufacturing activity dulled the outlook for crude demand. Crude oil also came under pressure as a report showed that U.S. factory orders climbed 2.1% in March, strengthening the outlook for the dollar, said Ang. A firmer dollar weighs on crude oil prices as it is priced in the currency.

There are also lingering concerns over increasing supplies as recent data showed that Iraq had exported the most oil in three decades last month, says an ANZ report. Investors are awaiting U.S. crude oil production data Wednesday.

With speculation rife over how long Saudi Arabia is content to see oil prices slump, the country’s oil minister said that only Allah knows where prices are heading.

Influential Saudi Oil Minister, Ali Al-Naimi, told CNBC Tuesday that “no one can set the price of oil – it’s up to Allah.” The remark comes amid widespread speculation over how long Saudi Arabia will maintain its decision not to cut production – a move that could support prices.

Al-Naimi insisted that he was “not worried at all” about the prospect of Iranian crude coming back onto the market if sanctions on Iran are lifted as part of an international nuclear deal. Such a move could drive prices lower, as it would add to the global glut in supply.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

WEEKLY

This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

 

 

 

Japan – Greenery Day

  AUD

 

Trade Balance (Mar)

-1.322B

-1.000B

-1.609B

   

  AUD

 

Interest Rate Decision (May)

2.00%

2.00%

2.25%

 

 

  AUD

 

RBA Rate Statement  

 

 

 

 

 

  EUR

 

Spanish Unemployment

-118.9K

-64.8K

-60.2K

 

 

  GBP

 

Construction PMI (Apr)

 

57.5

57.8

   

 oil tuesday

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Wednesday, May 6, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

 

 

 

Japan – Greenery Day

  NZD

 

Employment Change (QoQ) (Q1)

 

0.8%

1.2%

 

 

  AUD

 

Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)

 

0.4%

0.7%

 

 

  GBP

 

Services PMI (Apr)

 

58.5

58.9

 

 

  USD

 

ADP Nonfarm Employment

 

200K

189K

 

 

  USD

 

Fed Chair Yellen Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  CAD

 

Ivey PMI (Apr)

 

49.2

47.9

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 05 09:15 Austria Eur 1.1bn 3.5% Sep 2021

May 06 09:03 Sweden Sek 2bn 3.5% Jun 2022

May 06 09:10 Greece Eur 0.875bn 6 month (Nov 2015) T-bills

May 06 09:30 Germany Eur 5bn Jun 2017 Schatz

May 07 08:30 Spain Auctions 0.5% Oct 2017 Bono, 0.55%

May 07 09:10 France Auctions OATs

May 07 09:10 Sweden Holds inflation-linked bond auction

May 08 10:00 Norway Details bond auction on 12 May

May 08 15:30 Italy Announces details of BTP

May 12 09:15 Norway Holds bond auction

May 13 09:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

May 13 09:30 Germany Eur 3bn Feb 2025 Bund

May 13 14:30 Sweden Details bond auction on 20 May

May 14 09:30 UK Auctions 2% 2020 Conventional Gilt

 

 

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