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Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis, May 7, 2015 – Forecast

Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis, May 7, 2015 – Forecast

Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis, May 7, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil gained $1.46 to trade at 61.86 as traders thought about the possibility of US exports. Brent Oil  followed suit gaining $1.33 to 68.85 as violence in Yemen and Libya stressed markets.  The Saudi’s increased prices on their oil to the US and Asia signaling stronger demand.   Brent crude oil hit a high for the year above $68 a barrel after protests stopped crude flows to the eastern Libyan oil port of Zueitina, hampering exports.

Zueitina was one of the few Libyan ports still exporting oil as many others have closed due to fighting or disruptions at oilfields since the ousting of former dictator Muammar Gaddafi. “The protesters closed the pipeline to the port,” Mohamed El Harari, spokesman for state oil firm NOC, said, adding that several oilfields in eastern Libya would have to close.

Libyan oil output is now below 500,000 barrels per day (bpd), officials say, a third of what Libya pumped before 2010.

A strong dollar also weighed on oil, making the commodity more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Oil producers have been losing money over the past year as prices plunged due to oversupply. With the current cutbacks, some analysts are expecting that U.S. supplies will soon stop rising, which has encouraged buyers to jump back into the oil market. However, supplies now stand at an 80-year high, which could dampen further gains.

Meanwhile, as drillers have been losing money and shutting down production, refineries have been benefitting. Refiners have been able to buy cheap U.S. crude oil, producing gasoline and diesel fuel at profitable margins, especially when they are in a position to sell it to foreign markets like Africa and South America.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

WEEKLY

This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

 

 

 

Japan – Greenery Day

  NZD

 

Employment Change (QoQ)

0.7%

0.8%

1.2%

 

 

  AUD

 

Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)

0.3%

0.4%

0.7%

 

 

  GBP

 

Services PMI (Apr)

59.5

58.5

58.9

 

 

  USD

 

ADP Nonfarm Employment

 

200K

189K

 

 

  USD

 

Fed Chair Yellen Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

 oil wed

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Thursday, May 7, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  AUD

 

Employment Change (Apr)

 

5.0K

37.7K

 

 

  AUD

 

Full Employment Change (Apr)

 

 

31.5K

 

 

  AUD

 

Unemployment Rate (Apr)

 

6.2%

6.1%

 

 

  EUR

 

German Factory Orders (MoM) (Mar)

 

1.5%

-0.9%

 

 

  RUB

 

Central Bank reserves (USD)

 

 

353.5B

 

 

  USD

 

Initial Jobless Claims

 

280K

262K

 

 

  CAD

 

Building Permits (MoM) (Mar)

 

2.5%

-0.9%

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 07 08:30 Spain Auctions 0.5% Oct 2017 Bono, 0.55%

May 07 09:10 France Auctions OATs

May 07 09:10 Sweden Holds inflation-linked bond auction

May 08 10:00 Norway Details bond auction on 12 May

May 08 15:30 Italy Announces details of BTP

May 12 09:15 Norway Holds bond auction

May 13 09:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

May 13 09:30 Germany Eur 3bn Feb 2025 Bund

May 13 14:30 Sweden Details bond auction on 20 May

May 14 09:30 UK Auctions 2% 2020 Conventional Gilt

 

 

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