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Crude Oil Brent Oil Weekly Analysis, May 11-15, 2015 Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation (Crude Oil Brent Oil Forecast) :

Crude Oil recovered earlier losses to close the week at 59.41 after climbing above the 62 price for a short while. Brent Oil ended at 65.48 coming off the 67 price level. Baker Hughes Inc. says the number of rigs exploring for oil and natural gas in the U.S. declined by 11 this week to 894.

Houston-based Baker Hughes said today that 668 rigs were seeking oil and 221 explored for natural gas. Five were listed as miscellaneous. A year ago, with oil prices nearly double the current price, 1,855 rigs were active.

Oil prices rose during the final session of the week as traders weighed expectations of growing demand against concerns that the market remains oversupplied.  The US contract posted a 0.4 per cent gain this week while Brent fell 1.6 per cent.

Prices rose early in the session after the Labor Department reported that US employers added a seasonally adjusted 223,000 jobs in April and the unemployment rate fell to 5.4 per cent from 5.5 per cent the prior month. Higher employment can put more commuters on the road, a positive indicator for oil demand.

Oil prices have hit their highest levels in 2015, with WTI surging above $60 per barrel. Crude oil inventories in the U.S. declined for the first time since December 2014, perhaps indicating that the glut could be easing.

The EIA reported that oil stockpiles fell by 3.9 million barrels for the week ending on May 1, a larger drop than expected. With rig counts falling by more than half since last year, this could be the beginning of a longer contraction. Both weekly production figures and the stock build appeared to have peaked, suggesting that supplies are adjusting lower and demand is rising.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

 

WEEKLY

This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday.

Major Economic Events for the week that you should be monitoring:

MONDAY, MAY 11

UK

GBP

BoE Asset Purchase Facility

£375

£375

UK

GBP

BoE Interest Rate Decision

0.5%

0.5%

TUESDAY, MAY 12

UK

GBP

NIESR GDP Estimate (3M) (Apr)

0.6%

WEDNESDAY, MAY 13

DE

EUR

Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q1)

0.7%

EMU

EUR

Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q1)

0.9%

UK

GBP

BOE’s Governor Carney speech

UK

GBP

Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report

EMU

EUR

ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

US

USD

Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) (Apr)

0.4%

US

USD

Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)

0.9%

FRIDAY, MAY 15

JP

JPY

Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda Speech

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 12 09:15 Norway Holds bond auction

May 13 09:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

May 13 09:30 Germany Eur 3bn Feb 2025 Bund

May 13 14:30 Sweden Details bond auction on 20 May

May 14 09:30 UK Auctions 2% 2020 Conventional Gilt

 

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