Analysis and Recommendations (Crude Forecast):
Crude Oil dipped 73 points as the US dollar rallied. Crude oil is trading at 59.51 while Brent Oil fell 88 cents to 65.39. Brent crude oil fell below $66 a barrel on Tuesday as the dollar strengthened and on evidence of ample supplies of Middle Eastern oil despite wars in northern Iraq, Syria and Yemen.
The dollar rose to almost a one-week high against a basket of currencies, recovering from a four-month low and making oil and other commodities more expensive to consumers in non-dollar economies.
Crude rallied on Monday on worries that Middle Eastern oil supplies could be disrupted by escalating fighting in the region, but data suggested production from the Gulf was increasing.
The entire oil sector is digesting negative comments from Goldman Sachs earlier today. The firm has come forward with projected prices for 2015 and significantly lower prices for 2016.
The firm does see some upside potential for some refiners, which may benefit West Coast fracking operations.
Oil slipped as a rallying dollar weighed on the commodities complex amid a bearish price outlook by influential Wall Street firm Goldman Sachs and risks of growing oversupply. Crude oil prices erased early gains of more than 1 a barrel on worries of turmoil in the Middle East.
Goldman said in a note circulated to its clients that it expected Brent to trade at 55 a barrel by 2020 versus current levels above 65.
Analysts said oil markets remained oversupplied and that the glut could worsen if US production picked up while OPEC output remained strong.
Kuwait’s OPEC Governor said oversupply in global oil was due to slow demand and a rise in shale oil output not production by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.
Iran’s Deputy Oil Minister Rokneddin Javadi said that OPEC was unlikely to cut output at its June meeting and that Iran hoped its exports would return to pre-sanctions levels of 2.5 million barrels per day within three months of a deal to lift an oil embargo.
ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review in forex trading. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information for Crude Oil and Brent Oil in our weekly reports.
This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday.
Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:
|NZD||PPI Input (QoQ) (Q1)||-1.1%||-0.7%||-0.4%|
|AUD||Monetary Policy Meeting|
|NZD||Inflation Expectations (QoQ)||1.9%||1.8%|
|GBP||CPI (MoM) (Apr)||0.2%||0.4%||0.2%|
|GBP||CPI (YoY) (Apr)||-0.1%||0.0%||0.0%|
|GBP||PPI Input (MoM) (Apr)||0.4%||0.8%||0.4%|
|EUR||German ZEW Current Conditions||65.7||68.0||70.2|
|EUR||German ZEW Economic||41.9||49.0||53.3|
|EUR||Core CPI (YoY) (Apr)||0.6%||0.6%||0.6%|
|EUR||CPI (YoY) (Apr)||0.0%||0.0%||0.0%|
|EUR||CPI (MoM) (Apr)||0.2%||0.2%||1.1%|
|EUR||Trade Balance (Mar)||23.4B||22.8B||20.3B|
|EUR||ZEW Economic Sentiment||61.2||62.4||64.8|
Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring for Crude Oil and Brent Oil in forex trading:
Wednesday, May 20, 2015
|JPY||GDP (QoQ) (Q1)||0.4%||0.4%|
|JPY||GDP (YoY) (Q1)||1.5%||1.5%|
|AUD||Westpac Consumer Sentiment||-3.2%|
|EUR||German PPI (MoM) (Apr)||0.2%||0.1%|
|GBP||BoE MPC Meeting Minutes|
|CAD||Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Mar)||0.7%||-0.4%|
|USD||Crude Oil Inventories||-2.191M|
|USD||FOMC Meeting Minutes|
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
May 20 09:03 Sweden Holds bond auction
May 21 08:30 Spain Auctions Bonos
May 21 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction
May 21 09:10 France Auctions BTANs
May 21 09:30 UK Auctions 4.75% 2030 Conventional Gilt
May 21 10:10 France Auctions
May 21 15:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 26 May
May 21 15:00 US Announces details of 2-year FRN on 27 May, plus 2/5/7 year
May 21 17:00 US Auctions 10-year TIPs
May 22 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction
May 22 10:00 Norway Details bond auction on 27 May
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