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EUR/GBP Analysis Forecast, May 14, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations (EUR/GBP Forecast):

The EUR/GBP dipped 29 points to trade at 0.7128 as the pound soared after the Bank of England inflation report today. UK jobs data was a bit disappointing but not enough to upset markets and this was offset by Mark Carney’s reduction in growth forecasts. Average weekly wages excluding bonuses rose by an inflation-busting 2.2 per cent in March, official figures published this morning showed – a welcome relief for consumers.

Meanwhile, unemployment fell to another post-financial crisis low of 5.5 per cent (that’s the best figure since July 2008), while the number of vacancies rose to 733,000 between February and April, up 95,000 from the same period last year. The number of people classifying themselves as “unemployed” fell by 35,000.

The Eurozone economy grew at a faster rate than the UK’s during the first quarter of this year, topping off a stream of recent data suggesting the bloc is emerging from a long period of stagnation.

Official statistics agency Eurostat said GDP rose 0.4 per cent across the euro area, towards the bottom of analyst estimates, but up from 0.3 per cent in the last quarter of 2014.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review in forex trading. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information for EUR/GBP in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  NZD RBNZ Gov Wheeler Speaks
  JPY Current Account n.s.a. (Mar) 2.795T 2.060T 1.440T
  AUD Wage Price Index (QoQ) (Q1) 0.5% 0.6% 0.6%
  CNY Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) 12.0% 13.5% 13.5%
  CNY Industrial Production (YoY) 5.9% 6.0% 5.6%
  EUR German CPI (MoM) (Apr) 0.0% -0.1% -0.1%
  EUR German GDP (YoY) (Q1) 1.1% 1.2% 1.6%
  EUR German GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 0.3% 0.5% 0.7%
  CNY New Loans (Apr) 707.9B 903.0B 1,180.0B
  GBP Average Earnings Index +Bonus 1.9% 1.7% 1.7%
  GBP Claimant Count Change (Apr) -12.6K -20.0K -16.7K
  GBP Unemployment Rate (Mar) 5.5% 5.5% 5.6%
  EUR GDP (QoQ) (Q1)  0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
  EUR Industrial Production (MoM)  -0.3% 0.2% 1.1%
  GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
  GBP BoE Inflation Report
  EUR Monetary Policy Meeting

 EUR/GBP chart

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring for EUR/GBP in forex trading:

Thursday, May 14, 2015

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  NZD Business NZ PMI (Apr) 54.5
  NZD Core Retail Sales (QoQ) 1.5% 1.5%
  NZD Retail Sales (QoQ) (Q1) 1.5% 1.7%
  GBP RICS House Price Balance (Apr) 22% 21%
  CNY New Loans 1,210.0B 1,180.0B
  USD Core PPI (MoM) (Apr) 0.1% 0.2%
  USD Initial Jobless Claims 275K 265K
  USD PPI (MoM) (Apr) 0.2% 0.2%

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 14 09:00 Ireland Eur 0.75bn 0.8% Mar 2022 IGBs

May 14 09:30 UK GBP 3.75bn 2% Jul 2020 Conventional Gilt

May 14 15:00 US Announces details of 10-year TIPS sale on 21 May

May 14 17:00 US USD 16bn 30-year bond

May 18 09:30 Germany Eur 1.5bn 12M (May 2016) Bubills

May 18 10:00 Belgium Auctions OLOs

 

 

EUR/GBP analysis forecast

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