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EUR/GBP Analysis Forecast, May 22, 2015 – Forecast

eurgbp thursday bnsAnalysis and Recommendations (EUR/GBP Forecast):

The EUR/GBP edged down after a stellar retail sales report in the UK which sent the pound soaring. The euro was faced with a bit of mixed data that helped elevate the currency but not fight the gains of the pound. The pair is trading at 0.7112 down 28 points. Activity in Germany, the Eurozone’s industrial powerhouse, slowed over the month, while France picked up. Figures released last week by the European Union’s statistics agency showed that while the Eurozone economy as a whole grew more rapidly in the first quarter of the year, Germany slowed sharply, and that appears to have continued into the second quarter.

British retail sales rose more strongly than expected in April, recovering from a surprise fall in March, as unusually warm weather encouraged shoppers to buy new clothes, official data showed on Thursday.

Retail sales volumes rose 1.2 percent on the month, the strongest increase since November, to show 4.7 percent growth on the year, the Office for National Statistics said.  Economists had expected retail sales

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information for EUR/GBP in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  CNY

 

HSBC Manufacturing PMI

49.1

49.3

48.9

 

 

  EUR

 

German Manufacturing PMI

51.4

52.3

52.1

 

 

  EUR

 

German Services PMI (May)  

52.9

53.9

54.0

 

 

  EUR

 

Manufacturing PMI (May)  

52.3

52.0

52.0

 

 

  EUR

 

Markit Composite PMI (May)  

53.4

53.8

53.9

 

 

  EUR

 

Services PMI (May)  

53.3

53.9

54.1

 

 

  GBP

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)

1.2%

0.3%

0.2%

 

 

  GBP

 

Core Retail Sales (YoY) (Apr)

4.7%

3.7%

4.8%

   

  GBP

 

Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)

1.2%

0.4%

-0.7%

   

  GBP

 

Retail Sales (YoY) (Apr)

4.7%

3.8%

4.0%

   

  GBP

 

CBI Industrial Trends Orders

-5

3

1

 

 

  EUR

 

ECB Monetary Policy Meeting  

 

 

 

   

 EURGBP(60 minutes)20150521064518

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Friday, May 22, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  EUR

 

German GDP (QoQ) (Q1)

 

0.3%

0.3%

 

 

  JPY

 

BoJ Press Conference  

 

 

 

 

 

  EUR

 

German Ifo Business Climate Index (May)

 

108.3

108.6

 

 

  EUR

 

ECB President Draghi Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  GBP

 

BoE Gov Carney Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

Core CPI (MoM) (Apr)

 

0.2%

0.2%

 

 

  CAD

 

Core CPI (MoM) (Apr)

 

0.2%

0.6%

 

 

  CAD

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)

 

0.4%

2.0%

 

 

  GBP

 

BoE Gov Carney Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  EUR

 

ECB President Draghi Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

Fed Chair Yellen Speaks  

 

 

 

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 21 08:30 Spain Auctions Bonos

May 21 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction

May 21 09:10 France Auctions BTANs

May 21 09:30 UK Auctions 4.75% 2030 Conventional Gilt

May 21 10:10 France Auctions

May 21 15:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 26 May

May 21 15:00 US Announces details of 2-year FRN on 27 May, plus 2/5/7 year

May 21 17:00 US Auctions 10-year TIPs

May 22 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction

May 22 10:00 Norway Details bond auction on 27 May

 

EUR/GBP analysis forecast

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