Share

EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis, May 11, 2015 – Forecast

eurgbp friday bnsAnalysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/GBP saw the biggest decline in recent history, dropping 144 points to 0.7245 as the UK election kept David Cameron safely in place. The UK rallied ever since the polls closed on Thursday night. German data today was also disappointing.   While the election results will remove one source of uncertainty for investors, a Conservative win may raise another over the future of the U.K. in the EU. The Tories have promised to hold an in-or-out referendum on the issue, and analysts have called the threat of a “Brexit” — a U.K. exit from the EU — as a risk.

The pound made its biggest one-day gain against the euro for two years and the FTSE-100 was expected to surge as the Conservatives stormed ahead in the polls this morning. Markets rejoiced at the prospect of a stable, Tory-led government continuing the austerity economics of the past five years.

Broadly, sterling moved in line with the results coming in and their effect on the spread betting markets predicting the outcome for the Tories. It peaked as, at one stage, these were indicating a spread of between 322-325 seats for the Tories. The spread is currently 319-322.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  JPY

 

Monetary Policy Meeting

 

 

 

 

 

  AUD

 

RBA Monetary Statement  

 

 

 

 

 

  CNY

 

Exports (YoY) (Apr)

-6.4%

2.4%

-15.0%

 

 

  CNY

 

Imports (YoY) (Apr)

-16.2%

-12.0%

-12.7%

 

 

  CNY

 

Trade Balance (Apr)

34.13B

39.45B

3.08B

 

 

  EUR

 

German Industrial Production

-0.5%

0.4%

0.2%

 

 

  EUR

 

German Trade Balance (Mar)

19.3B

20.0B

20.0B

   

  GBP

 

Halifax House Price Index (YoY)

8.5%

7.8%

8.1%

 

 

  GBP

 

Halifax House Price Index

1.6%

0.4%

0.6%

   

  GBP

 

Trade Balance (Mar)

 

-9.80B

-10.34B

 

 

  GBP

 

Trade Balance Non-EU (Mar)

 

-2.95B

-3.24B

   

 EURGBP(60 minutes)20150508103454

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Monday, May 11, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

 

 

 

Russia – Victory Day

  AUD

 

NAB Business Confidence (Apr)

 

 

3

 

 

  GBP

 

BoE QE Total (May)

 

 

375B

 

 

  GBP

 

Interest Rate Decision (May)

 

0.50%

0.50%

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 12 09:15 Norway Holds bond auction

May 13 09:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

May 13 09:30 Germany Eur 3bn Feb 2025 Bund

May 13 14:30 Sweden Details bond auction on 20 May

May 14 09:30 UK Auctions 2% 2020 Conventional Gilt

 

REGISTER WITH OUR FORUM AND POST AT LEAST ONE MESSAGE TO GET FREE SIGNALS

Leave a Comment