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EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis, May 12, 2015 – Forecast

eurgbp monday bnsAnalysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/GBP is flat today, with both currencies trading in the red. The pound is giving back some of its gains after the elections and the Bank of England meeting while the euro is falling as traders wait for news from the Eurogroup about Greece. The pair is trading at 0.7254.  A top EU official urged Athens and its creditors to make progress in their talks on a cash-for-reform deal on Monday, warning there was no “Plan B” in the event of a Greek default.

“What we now need is real progress,” Franz Timmermans, first vice president of the European Commission, told German newspaper Welt Sonntag.

When asked whether there was a “Plan B” for the case of Athens defaulting, Timmermans replied: “No, there is no ‘Plan B’ for Greece.” “If you work on a ‘Plan B’, you basically have given up ‘Plan A’,” he said, adding that all parties involved should do everything to conclude the negotiations with Greece successfully.

The strong moves made in all GBP crosses on Friday, following the UK General Election results, have shaken up our previously-held technical forecast picture and afforded sterling a more positive tone. Currency markets face a busy week in terms of both UK and Eurozone data releases and we ask leading industry analysts what they consider to be the key levels that will influence direction in the EUR-GBP rate over the short and near-term timeframes.

On Wednesday the BoE will announce its widely-watched inflation report. Employment and unemployment figures are also due that day and are expected to show a strong market.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  AUD

 

Home Loans (MoM) (Mar)

 

1.0%

1.2%

 

 

  JPY

 

10-Year JGB Auction

 

 

0.369%

 

 

 EURGBP(15 minutes)20150511091359

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Tuesday, May 12, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  GBP

 

BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY)

 

 

3.2%

 

 

  AUD

 

Home Loans (MoM) (Mar)

 

1.0%

1.2%

 

 

  GBP

 

Industrial Production (MoM)

 

0.1%

0.1%

 

 

  GBP

 

Manufacturing Production

 

0.3%

0.4%

 

 

  USD

 

JOLTs Job Openings (Mar)

 

5.085M

5.133M

 

 

  USD

 

Federal Budget Balance (Apr)

 

146.5B

-53.0B

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 12 09:15 Norway Holds bond auction

May 13 09:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

May 13 09:30 Germany Eur 3bn Feb 2025 Bund

May 13 14:30 Sweden Details bond auction on 20 May

May 14 09:30 UK Auctions 2% 2020 Conventional Gilt

 

 

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