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EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis May 5, 2015 – Forecast

eurgbp monday bnsAnalysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/GBP dipped 30 points today as traders counted the days down to UK elections. The euro tumbled after traders correct from last week’s rally. Traders worry about the lack of a Greek agreement as the day’s countdown. The pair is trading at 0.7360. Euro-area consumer prices ended a four-month streak of declines in April after falling 0.1 percent in March. The ECB seeks to foster inflation close to 2 percent.

The signs of rising prices reflected results for the central bank’s bond-buying program, sending the euro higher and helping fuel a rout in euro-area bond markets. Government bond yields moved higher in Germany and other nations, adding to the allure of euro-denominated assets.

“With German yields shooting higher and European equities getting squeezed, you saw those short euro-dollar positions that went with them get unwound too,” said Matt Derr, a foreign-exchange strategist at Credit Suisse Group AG in New York.

UK Election Watch:

This week’s UK Polling Report poll of polls puts the Conservatives on 34 per cent and Labour on 33, but Ed Miliband, Labour leader, remains narrow favorite with bookmakers to become Britain’s next prime minister.

Michael Gove, Tory chief whip, argues his party is gaining ground because of a fear among some voters that Mr. Miliband can only enter Downing Street with the support of the Scottish National party. Labour insists it is still on course to be the largest party despite the expected loss of many seats in Scotland to the SNP.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

 

 

 

United Kingdom – Early May Bank Holiday

  CNY

 

HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Apr)

48.9

49.4

49.2

 

 

  EUR

 

German Manufacturing PMI

 

51.9

51.9

   

 EURGBP(15 minutes)20150504143324

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Tuesday, May 5, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  AUD

 

Interest Rate Decision (May)

 

2.00%

2.25%

 

 

  GBP

 

Construction PMI (Apr)

 

57.5

57.8

 

 

  USD

 

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

 

56.5

56.5

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 05 11:15 Austria Holds RAGB bond sale

May 06 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

May 06 11:30 Germany Eur 5bn Jun 2017 Schatz

May 07 10:30 Spain Auctions Bonos

May 07 11:10 France Auctions OATs

May 07 11:10 Sweden Holds inflation-linked bond auction

May 08 12:00 Norway Details bond auction on 12 May

May 08 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTP/CCTeu on 13 Ma

 

 

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