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EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis, May 6, 2015 – Forecast

eurgbp tuesday bnsAnalysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/GBP eased 33 points as the euro tumbled today offsetting the decline in the pound after a weak construction PMI report today. Ongoing concerns over Greece continue to weigh down the currency. The pair fell to trade at 0.7336. Greece’s debt crisis was back in the spotlight on Tuesday, as the anti-austerity government continued bailout talks with its eurozone lenders. Athens is facing a 750 million euro ($832 million) debt repayment to the International Monetary Fund next week, but there are fears it will run out of cash unless it reaches a deal with creditors to unlock the next tranche of bailout money.

Growth in Britain’s construction industry slowed sharply in April as companies put off decisions ahead of this week’s national election, but confidence remained high and hinted at a post-election pickup, a survey showed.

The monthly Markit/CIPS UK construction purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 54.2 last month, its lowest level in 22 months and down from 57.8 in March.

The UK remains in full election mode with traders watching the polls intensely ahead of Thursday’s vote.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

 

 

 

Japan – Greenery Day

  AUD

 

Trade Balance (Mar)

-1.322B

-1.000B

-1.609B

   

  AUD

 

Interest Rate Decision (May)

2.00%

2.00%

2.25%

 

 

  AUD

 

RBA Rate Statement  

 

 

 

 

 

  EUR

 

Spanish Unemployment

-118.9K

-64.8K

-60.2K

 

 

  GBP

 

Construction PMI (Apr)

 54.2

57.5

57.8

   

 eurgbp tuesday

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Wednesday, May 6, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

 

 

 

Japan – Greenery Day

  NZD

 

Employment Change (QoQ) (Q1)

 

0.8%

1.2%

 

 

  AUD

 

Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)

 

0.4%

0.7%

 

 

  GBP

 

Services PMI (Apr)

 

58.5

58.9

 

 

  USD

 

ADP Nonfarm Employment

 

200K

189K

 

 

  USD

 

Fed Chair Yellen Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  CAD

 

Ivey PMI (Apr)

 

49.2

47.9

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 05 09:15 Austria Eur 1.1bn 3.5% Sep 2021

May 06 09:03 Sweden Sek 2bn 3.5% Jun 2022

May 06 09:10 Greece Eur 0.875bn 6 month (Nov 2015) T-bills

May 06 09:30 Germany Eur 5bn Jun 2017 Schatz

May 07 08:30 Spain Auctions 0.5% Oct 2017 Bono, 0.55%

May 07 09:10 France Auctions OATs

May 07 09:10 Sweden Holds inflation-linked bond auction

May 08 10:00 Norway Details bond auction on 12 May

May 08 15:30 Italy Announces details of BTP

May 12 09:15 Norway Holds bond auction

May 13 09:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

May 13 09:30 Germany Eur 3bn Feb 2025 Bund

May 13 14:30 Sweden Details bond auction on 20 May

May 14 09:30 UK Auctions 2% 2020 Conventional Gilt

 

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