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EUR/GBP Fundamental Analysis, May 8, 2015 – Forecast

eurgbp thursday bnsAnalysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/GBP added 24 points as the euro gathered some momentum today. The pair is trading at 0.7466. The euro powered to a three-month high against sterling as Britons vote on Thursday in the most closely fought national election in a generation. Well it is finally Election Day in the UK with no clear cut winner in polls it may be very confusing over the next days or so. The first landmark to watch out for will be exit polls due for release shortly after 10pm UK time, which in the past two elections has proved to be quite precise, however this time round the race is so close, and their accuracy will be in question. But for the markets, it is the very fact that the result is so uncertain that investors are yet to make their mind up as to how to position themselves. As we go through the night and the picture becomes clearer there’s plenty of potential for volatility to pick up, especially since volumes will be thinner during the overnight session. As mentioned for now sterling is a little on the softer side with GBPUSD hovering around 1.5200 and EURGBP marginally higher at 0.7465.

A possible Labour/SNP combine looks big enough to govern, based on the most up-to-date poll soundings, but how long would it take them to dislodge Mr. Cameron from Downing Street? On the other hand, and also on the basis of current forecasts, a Tory-Lib Dem coalition would not have enough votes to form a coalition, so they would need to be able to muster enough support from the small parties. Would they be able to gather enough support?

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  AUD

 

Employment Change (Apr)

-2.9K

5.0K

48.2K

   

  AUD

 

Full Employment Change (Apr)

-21.9K

 

41.3K

   

  AUD

 

Unemployment Rate (Apr)

6.2%

6.2%

6.1%

 

 

  EUR

 

German Factory Orders (MoM)

0.9%

1.5%

-0.9%

 

 

  RUB

 

Central Bank reserves (USD)

 

 

353.5B

 

 

  USD

 

Initial Jobless Claims

 

280K

262K

 

 

 eurgbp 3

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Friday, May 8, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  CNY

 

Trade Balance (Apr)

 

39.45B

3.08B

 

 

  USD

 

Nonfarm Payrolls (Apr)

 

224K

126K

 

 

  USD

 

Unemployment Rate (Apr)

 

5.4%

5.5%

 

 

  CAD

 

Employment Change (Apr)

 

-5.0K

28.7K

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 07 08:30 Spain Auctions 0.5% Oct 2017 Bono, 0.55%

May 07 09:10 France Auctions OATs

May 07 09:10 Sweden Holds inflation-linked bond auction

May 08 10:00 Norway Details bond auction on 12 May

May 08 15:30 Italy Announces details of BTP

May 12 09:15 Norway Holds bond auction

May 13 09:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

May 13 09:30 Germany Eur 3bn Feb 2025 Bund

May 13 14:30 Sweden Details bond auction on 20 May

May 14 09:30 UK Auctions 2% 2020 Conventional Gilt

 

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