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EUR/GBP Fundamental Forecast May 2015

eurgbp monthly bnsOutlook and Recommendation

The EUR/GBP remained in a fairly tight range to close around the 0.7300 price level as both currencies were trading on a positive note. Eurozone growth prospects have also improved, which could in turn boost demand for UK exports. Inflation is at zero and is likely to turn briefly and mildly negative. However, favorable base effects and positive second round effects should help propel headline inflation back above 1% y/y early next year and closer to 2% towards the end of 2016.

Traders can expect euro zone real GDP growth to advance 1.5% in 2015 and 1.7% in 2016, up from 0.9% in 2014. Nevertheless, while the euro zone’s economic outlook has improved, core inflation remains stubbornly low at 0.6% y/y in April and economic challenges persist, with the region still struggling with high unemployment and structural rigidities.

There is a lot at stake in May with UK elections and the final countdown on Greece which could spark temporary volatility in the pair.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

eurgbp month

Major Economic Events In The Month of May

Date

Currency

Event

 

 

May 1

GBP

 

Manufacturing PMI

 
 

USD

 

ISM Manufacturing PMI

 

May 5

EUR

 

Spanish Unemployment Change

 
 

GBP

 

Construction PMI

 
 

USD

 

Trade Balance

 
 

USD

 

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

 

May 6

GBP

 

Services PMI

 
 

USD

 

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

 
 

USD

 

Fed Chair Yellen Speaks

 

May 7

GBP

 

Parliamentary Elections

 
 

USD

 

Unemployment Claims

 

May 8

USD

 

Non-Farm Employment Change

 
 

USD

 

Unemployment Rate

 

May 11

GBP

 

Official Bank Rate

 
 

GBP

 

MPC Rate Statement

 

May 12

GBP

 

Manufacturing Production m/m

 

May 13

EUR

 

German Prelim GDP q/q

 
 

GBP

 

Average Earnings Index 3m/y

 
 

GBP

 

Claimant Count Change

 
 

ALL

 

G7 Meetings

 
 

GBP

 

BOE Gov Carney Speaks

 
 

GBP

 

BOE Inflation Report

 
 

USD

 

Core Retail Sales m/m

 
 

USD

 

Retail Sales m/m

 

May 14

USD

 

PPI m/m

 
 

USD

 

Unemployment Claims

 

May 15

USD

 

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

 
 

ALL

 

G8 Meetings

 

May 19

GBP

 

CPI y/y

 
 

EUR

 

German ZEW Economic Sentiment

 
 

USD

 

Building Permits

 

May 20

EUR

 

French Flash Manufacturing PMI

 
 

EUR

 

German Flash Manufacturing PMI

 
 

GBP

 

MPC Official Bank Rate Votes

 
 

USD

 

FOMC Meeting Minutes

 

May 21

GBP

 

Retail Sales m/m

 
 

USD

 

Unemployment Claims

 
 

USD

 

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

 

May 22

ALL

 

G7 Meetings

 
 

USD

 

CPI m/m

 
 

USD

 

Core CPI m/m

 

May 25

EUR

 

German Ifo Business Climate

 

May 26

USD

 

Core Durable Goods Orders m/m

 
 

USD

 

CB Consumer Confidence

 

May 28

USD

 

Unemployment Claims

 

May 29

GBP

 

Second Estimate GDP q/q

 
 

USD

 

Prelim GDP q/q

 

 

 

 

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