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EUR/GBP Weekly Analysis Forecast – June 15-19, 2015 – Forecast

eurgbp weekly bnsWeekly Analysis and Recommendations (EUR/GBP Forecast)

The EUR/GBP  closed the week at almost flat after soaring on hopes and dreams of an agreement with Greece which sent the euro on a mid-week rally only to fall as the pound gained some momentum and the IMF walked out of ongoing talks with Greece. The pair closed the week at 0.7238.

The euro sank on Friday after German Chancellor Angela Merkel made a rare comment on exchange rates by saying a strong euro made it harder for countries like Spain and Portugal to reap the benefits of economic reform.

Germany has benefited massively from the introduction of the euro, the balancing effect of weaker southern European economies preventing what economists say would otherwise have been a surge in the old Deutschmark.

The European Central Bank’s move into quantitative easing this year has weakened the shared currency further against a broadly stronger dollar, but it has proved more robust since mid-March.

Analysts say a default and Greece’s gradual departure from the euro zone can only hurt the euro in the short run and the IMF’s withdrawal from Greek debt talks on Thursday was the latest blow on that front.

Britain’s current bout of deflation has been discounted by the Bank of England as a temporary phenomenon and Governor Mark Carney’s prediction that inflation of 2.0% may be a feature of the UK economy again this side of Christmas is likely to prop-up the pound into the medium term.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

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Major Economic Events for the week that you should be monitoring

 

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

Monday, June 15, 2015

 

  RUB

 

Interest Rate Decision (Jun)

 

11.50%

12.50%

 

 

Tuesday, June 16, 2015

 

  GBP

 

CPI (YoY) (May)

 

0.1%

-0.1%

 

 

 

  EUR

 

German ZEW Economic

 

37.1

41.9

 

 

 

  USD

 

Building Permits (May)

 

1.100M

1.140M

 

 

Wednesday, June 17, 2015

 

  GBP

 

Claimant Count Change (May)

 

-12.5K

-12.6K

 

 

 

  EUR

 

CPI (YoY) (May)

 

0.3%

0.3%

 

 

 

  USD

 

FOMC Statement  

 

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

Fed Interest Rate Decision

 

0.25%

0.25%

 

 

 

  USD

 

Fed Chair Yellen Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

Thursday, June 18, 2015

 

  NZD

 

GDP (QoQ) (Q1)

 

 

0.8%

 

 

 

  GBP

 

Retail Sales (MoM) (May)

 

0.2%

1.2%

 

 

 

  USD

 

Core CPI (MoM) (May)

 

0.2%

0.3%

 

 

 

  USD

 

Philadelphia Fed

 

8.0

6.7

 

 

Friday, June 19, 2015

 

  CAD

 

Core CPI (MoM) (May)

 

0.3%

0.1%

 

 

 

  CAD

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)

 

0.3%

0.5%

   

Upcoming Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country 

Jun 15 00:00 UK New 30 year I/L syndicated Gilt auction

Jun 17 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Jun 17 11:30 Germany Eur 3bn Feb 2025 Bund

Jun 18 10:30 Spain Auctions Bonos/Obligations

Jun 18 11:10 France Auctions BTANs

Jun 18 12:10 France Auctions OATi

Jun 18 17:00 US Details 2-year FRNs

Jun 18 17:00 US Announces details of 2/5/7 year notes

Jun 18 18:00 US Auctions 30-year TIPs sale on 24 Jun

 

 

EUR/GBP analysis forecast

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