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EUR/GBP Weekly Analysis Forecast, May 18-22, 2015 – Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendations (EUR/GBP Forecast)

The EUR/GBP added 49 points to trade at 0.7280 as the euro gained this week and outpaced the climb in the pound. Markets have both reacted to central bank comments. The good news this week was that Greece, on schedule, made its €750-million debt payment to the International Monetary Fund. The bad news was that it had to raid its own IMF currency reserves to do so. Draining one IMF account to pay another IMF account is the act of a desperate country.

Another Greek bailout is essential, all the more so since fresh data released Wednesday showed that the country, after a flirting with growth last year, is firmly back in recession. Heaping more debt onto a country that will never be able to pay off that debt seems folly.

Currency traders largely brushed off a more-dovish-than-expected Bank of England Inflation Report earlier in the week, which saw growth forecasts cut and warnings about a strong pound’s impact on the interest rate outlook. Sterling briefly dipped after the report’s release, but its losses were short-lived. Adding to its election-inspired rally, the pound was also boosted earlier in the week by data that showed British earnings growth had picked up more than expected in the first quarter of the year. The Bank of England is keeping a close eye on labour costs as it considers when to start raising interest rates.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review in forex trading. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information for EUR/GBP in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

eurgbp chart

Major Economic Events for the week that you should be monitoring for EUR/GBP in forex tradibg

Cur. Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Monday, May 18, 2015

Tuesday, May 19, 2015

  AUD Monetary Meeting Minutes

 

  GBP CPI (YoY)

 

  EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment

 

49.0

53.3

  EUR CPI (YoY)

 

0.0%

0.0%

  USD Building Permits (Apr)

 

1.065M

1.042M

  CAD BoC Gov Poloz Speaks

 

Wednesday, May 20, 2015

  GBP BoE MPC Meeting Minutes

 

  USD FOMC Meeting Minutes

 

Thursday, May 21, 2015

  CNY HSBC Manufacturing

 

49.4

48.9

  EUR German Manufacturing

 

52.3

52.1

  GBP Retail Sales

 

0.4%

-0.5%

  USD Existing Home Sales

 

5.24M

5.19M

  USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing

 

8.2

7.5

Friday, May 22, 2015

  EUR German GDP

 

0.3%

0.3%

  EUR German Manufacturing

 

52.1

  EUR German Ifo Business

 

108.3

108.6

  USD Core CPI

 

0.2%

0.2%

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 18 09:30 Germany Eur 1.5bn 12M (May 2016) Bubills

May 18 10:00 Belgium Auctions OLOs

May 20 09:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

May 21 08:30 Spain Auctions Bonos

May 21 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction

May 21 09:10 France Auctions BTANs

May 21 09:30 UK Auctions 4.75% 2030 Conventional Gilt

May 21 10:10 France Auctions

May 21 15:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 26 May

May 21 15:00 US Announces details of 2-year FRN on 27 May, plus 2/5/7 year

May 21 17:00 US Auctions 10-year TIPs

May 22 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction

May 22 10:00 Norway Details bond auction on 27 May

EUR/GBP analysis forecast

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