EUR/GBP Weekly Fundamental Analysis, May 4-8, 2015 – Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendations

The EUR/GBP closed the week at 0.7390 as the pound and the euro rose during the week. The pound is facing pressures of the upcoming election this week while the euro rebounded on strong inflation data as well as progress in Greek negotiations. The euro held steady Friday after surging in New York on encouraging economic data in the Eurozone, including a welcome pick-up in prices and stronger-than-expected growth in Spain. Euro-buying has also been supported by hopes Greece will be able to strike a bailout reform deal with its creditors that will help it avert a bailout and remain in the Eurozone.

“The pound has had a nice run recently, so I think when you see a negative print, it’s a good opportunity to go ahead and take profit, especially with the political risk the election poses next week,” said John Doyle, director of markets at Tempus Inc.

ECB stimulus pushed the euro down below $1.05 in March, but it has risen sharply in recent days, part of a broader global trend in which many of the first quarter’s most profitable trades went into reverse in April.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

EURGBP(60 minutes)20150501202724

Major Economic Events for the week that you should be monitoring:

Time Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
Monday, May 4, 2015
  CNY HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Apr) 49.2
  EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Apr) 51.9 51.9
Tuesday, May 5, 2015
  AUD Interest Rate Decision (May) 2.00% 2.25%
  GBP Construction PMI (Apr) 57.5 57.8
  USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 56.5 56.5
  NZD Employment Change (QoQ) (Q1) 0.8% 1.2%
Wednesday, May 6, 2015
  AUD Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) 0.4% 0.7%
  GBP Services PMI (Apr) 58.5 58.9
  USD ADP Nonfarm Employment 198K 189K
  CAD Ivey PMI (Apr) 47.9
Thursday, May 7, 2015
  AUD Employment Change (Apr) 5.0K 37.7K
Friday, May 8, 2015
  CNY Trade Balance (Apr) 3.08B
  USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Apr) 213K 126K
  USD Unemployment Rate (Apr) 5.4% 5.5%
  CAD Employment Change (Apr) 28.7K

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 05 11:15 Austria Holds RAGB bond sale

May 06 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

May 06 11:30 Germany Eur 5bn Jun 2017 Schatz

May 07 10:30 Spain Auctions Bonos

May 07 11:10 France Auctions OATs

May 07 11:10 Sweden Holds inflation-linked bond auction

May 08 12:00 Norway Details bond auction on 12 May

May 08 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTP/CCTeu on 13 Ma


EUR/GBP exchange rate forecast

Leave a Comment