Analysis and Recommendations (EUR/JPY Forecast):
The EUR/JPY gained 27 points as the euro continues to gather momentum after Greece made its payment to the IMF avoiding default. This payment gave the Eurozone and Greece a few more weeks to reach an agreement. The Japanese yen is a bit stronger after current account data printed in the green. The EURJPY climbed to 134.67. The country’s current account surplus hit a seven-year high in March.
Investors ignored news that the current account, which recorded a surplus for the ninth consecutive month, rose to 2.795tn yen ($23.3bn; £14.9bn), compared with forecasts of 2.06tn yen.
A nine month string of surpluses reflects income growth from overseas, including foreign investment, which is getting a boost from a weakened yen.
Last month Japanese statistics already showed the first trade surplus in nearly three years, as imports contracted 14.5 per cent. This was thanks largely to last year’s steep fall in oil prices, which has tempered the value of imports. Exports climbed 8.5 per cent.
Economists at Barclays noted before the report the travel account has already shown a surplus for six consecutive months, “reflecting the increase in foreign visitors to Japan.”
ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review in forex trading. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information for EUR/JPY in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:
|USD||API Weekly Crude Stock||-2.000M||-0.250M||-1.500M|
|NZD||RBNZ Gov Wheeler Speaks|
|JPY||Adjusted Current Account||2.07T||1.34T||0.61T|
|JPY||Current Account n.s.a. (Mar)||2.795T||2.060T||1.440T|
|AUD||Wage Price Index (QoQ) (Q1)||0.5%||0.6%||0.6%|
|CNY||Fixed Asset Investment (YoY)||13.5%||13.5%|
|CNY||Industrial Production (YoY)||6.0%||5.6%|
Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:
Thursday, May 14, 2015
|NZD||Business NZ PMI (Apr)||54.5|
|NZD||Core Retail Sales (QoQ)||1.5%||1.5%|
|NZD||Retail Sales (QoQ) (Q1)||1.5%||1.7%|
|GBP||RICS House Price Balance (Apr)||22%||21%|
|USD||Core PPI (MoM) (Apr)||0.1%||0.2%|
|USD||Initial Jobless Claims||275K||265K|
|USD||PPI (MoM) (Apr)||0.2%||0.2%|
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
May 14 09:00 Ireland Eur 0.75bn 0.8% Mar 2022 IGBs
May 14 09:30 UK GBP 3.75bn 2% Jul 2020 Conventional Gilt
May 14 15:00 US Announces details of 10-year TIPS sale on 21 May
May 14 17:00 US USD 16bn 30-year bond
May 18 09:30 Germany Eur 1.5bn 12M (May 2016) Bubills
May 18 10:00 Belgium Auctions OLOs
EUR/JPY analysis forecast 2015 May 14
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