EUR/JPY Fundamental Analysis, May 11, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations (EUR/JPY Forecast):

The EUR/JPY declined 46 points to trade at 134.44 as the euro gave back some of its gains after soaring on Thursday. The prime stressor remains the Greek financial situation.  While the Japanese yen eased a bit but remained stable after the first day back from the long holiday.  As there are only two market days in Tokyo this week, many currency traders remained on the sidelines, awaiting further U.S. data and the outcome of the election in Britain.

The BOJ has been trying to get rid of lingering deflationary pressure on the economy with its drastic quantitative easing.

But lower crude oil prices and a slow economic recovery following the 3-percentage-point consumption tax hike to 8 percent in April 2014 have prompted the BOJ to delay the timing of reaching the inflation goal.

The central bank now says it is expecting to achieve the price hike goal around the first half of fiscal 2016, starting next April. It earlier forecast hitting the target during a period centering on the current fiscal 2015.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our  weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  CNY Trade Balance (Apr) 34.13B 39.45B 3.08B
  USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Apr) 224K 126K
  USD Unemployment Rate (Apr) 5.4% 5.5%

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Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Monday, May 11, 2015

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
Russia – Victory Day
  AUD NAB Business Confidence (Apr) 3
  GBP BoE QE Total (May) 375B
  GBP Interest Rate Decision (May) 0.50% 0.50%

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 12 09:15 Norway Holds bond auction

May 13 09:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

May 13 09:30 Germany Eur 3bn Feb 2025 Bund

May 13 14:30 Sweden Details bond auction on 20 May

May 14 09:30 UK Auctions 2% 2020 Conventional Gilt

EUR/JPY Exchange Rate

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