EUR/JPY Fundamental Analysis, May 12, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations (EUR/JPY Forecast):

The EUR/JPY dipped 62 points as the euro tumbled in the morning session as the UK election results bring back the possibility of Brexit while Grexit is still a strong possibility as doomsday looms with the Eurogroup meeting today to decide on Greek proposals. The pair is trading at 133.53. The euro fell to a one-week low before European finance ministers meet on Monday to discuss the financial aid that Greece needs to stave off a default.

The shared currency snapped its longest winning streak in a year as Greece faces a deadline on Tuesday to pay the International Monetary Fund. German Chancellor Angela Merkel is under pressure from within her own party bloc to give up on the debt-ridden country to preserve the euro. The Aussie slid before the governments expected announcement of a wider budget deficit on Tuesday, while New Zealand’s dollar plunged as speculation heightened the country’s central bank will cut interest rates.

Germany’s finance minister says Berlin wants to help indebted Greece stay in the eurozone, but has warned of the risk of Athens facing sudden insolvency.

“Experience elsewhere in the world has shown that a country can suddenly slide into insolvency,” Wolfgang Schaeuble warned in an interview with the newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung published on Sunday.

When asked whether Berlin was preparing for such a scenario, Mr Schaeuble said only that “there are some questions that a responsible politician should not answer. Otherwise there’ll be misunderstandings.”

Mr Schaeuble also stressed that Germany, Europe’s top economy, “will do everything to keep Greece in the Eurozone under responsible conditions,” adding that he and Chancellor Angela Merkel agreed that Greece “must not fail because of us.”

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review in forex trading. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information for EUR/JPY in our  weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  AUD Home Loans (MoM) (Mar) 1.0% 1.2%
  JPY 10-Year JGB Auction 0.369%

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Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring in forex trading with EUR/JPY:

Tuesday, May 12, 2015

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY) 3.2%
  AUD Home Loans (MoM) (Mar) 1.0% 1.2%
  GBP Industrial Production (MoM) 0.1% 0.1%
  GBP Manufacturing Production 0.3% 0.4%
  USD JOLTs Job Openings (Mar) 5.085M 5.133M
  USD Federal Budget Balance (Apr) 146.5B -53.0B

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 12 09:15 Norway Holds bond auction

May 13 09:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

May 13 09:30 Germany Eur 3bn Feb 2025 Bund

May 13 14:30 Sweden Details bond auction on 20 May

May 14 09:30 UK Auctions 2% 2020 Conventional Gilt

EUR/JPY Forecast 2016 Fundamentals


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