EUR/JPY Fundamental Analysis, May 13, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations (EUR/JPY forecast):

The EUR/JPY added 10 points to trade at134.05 its highest level in weeks as the euro declined this week after the Greeks were unable to reach an agreement from the Eurogroup. The Greeks indicated that the 750 million euro payment to the IMF would be transferred today avoid a default.  Most Asian markets retreated on Tuesday and the euro edged further down following losses on Wall Street as traders grow increasingly nervous about Greece’s debt talks.

However, Shanghai added to the previous day’s strong rally after China’s weekend interest rate cut raised hopes for further measures to bolster the world’s number two economy.

However, the bloc’s finance ministers, meeting in Brussels, said Greece could not hope for any of the final 7.2-billion-euro tranche of its 240-billion-euro EU-IMF bailout until it makes key reforms.

And with Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis admitting the country faced an imminent crisis, investors fear for its future in the Eurozone.  While Greece said on Monday it repaid about 750 million euros to the International Monetary Fund, the absence of a clear breakthrough in negotiations made it an anxious wait for markets worried that Athens would eventually run out of cash and default on its debts.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review in forex trading. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information for EUR/JPY in our  weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.


Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  AUD Home Loans (MoM) (Mar) 1.6% 1.0% 1.1%
  JPY 10-Year JGB Auction 0.369%

 EUR/JPY Chart

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring in forex trading:

Wednesday, May 13, 2015

Cur.   Event Actual Forecast Previous
  NZD RBNZ Gov Wheeler Speaks
  JPY Adjusted Current Account 1.34T 0.60T
  AUD Wage Price Index (QoQ) (Q1) 0.6% 0.6%
  CNY Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) 13.5% 13.5%
  CNY Industrial Production (YoY) 6.0% 5.6%
  EUR German CPI (MoM) (Apr) -0.1% -0.1%
  EUR German GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 0.5% 0.7%
  GBP Claimant Count Change (Apr) -20.0K -20.7K
  GBP Unemployment Rate (Mar) 5.5% 5.6%
  EUR GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 0.5% 0.3%
  EUR Industrial Production (MoM) 0.2% 1.1%
  GBP BoE Inflation Report
  EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting
  USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) 0.5% 0.4%
  USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) 0.2% 0.9%
  USD Crude Oil Inventories -3.882M

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 12 08:10 Dutch Eur 2-3bn 0.25% Jul 2025 DSL

May 12 09:15 Norway Eur 4bn 4.5% May 2019 bond

May 12 09:30 Germany Eur 1bn 0.1% Apr 2026 I/L Bund

May 12 17:00 US USD 24bn 3-year notes

May 13 09:10 Italy Eur 2.5-3bn 0.25% May 2018 & Eur 2-2.5bn 1.35% Apr 2022

BTPs, plus Eur 1-1.5bn 1.65% Mar 2032 & 3.25% Sep 2046

May 13 09:30 Germany Eur 3bn 0.5% Feb 2025 Bund

May 13 14:30 Sweden Details bond auction on 20 May

May 13 17:00 US USD 24bn 10-year notes

May 14 09:00 Ireland Eur 0.75bn 0.8% Mar 2022 IGBs

May 14 09:30 UK GBP 3.75bn 2% Jul 2020 Conventional Gilt

May 14 15:00 US Announces details of 10-year TIPS sale on 21 May

May 14 17:00 US USD 16bn 30-year bond

EUR/JPY Forecast 2015


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