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EUR/JPY Fundamental Analysis, May 6, 2015 – Forecast

eurjpy tuesday bnsnlaAnalysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/JPY dipped 10 points to trade at 133.79 as the euro declined in the morning session.  Traders continue to focus on the lack of an agreement between creditors and the Eurozone. The Bank of Japan Meeting Minutes due just a day before are less likely to force major moves in the Yen. Yet it remains important to monitor the central bank’s rhetoric in regards to future monetary policy moves. BoJ Governor Kuroda sounded a surprisingly neutral tone at a recent press conference as officials show no real willingness to ease monetary policy despite notable disappointments in economic data. Pressure is building on the BoJ to ease further as recent inflation figures showed a sharp pullback in year-over-year Tokyo CPI growth. And though this may not be enough to force the Bank of Japan’s hand in itself, it remains of clear interest to monitor officials’ next moves.

The euro rallied last week on indications the US Federal Reserve may hold off on raising interest rates, the prospect of which has been driving the US dollar higher, after the US economy was unexpectedly weak in the first quarter. Markets across Europe rebounded from early trading losses following publication of Markit Economics’ closely-watched Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the Eurozone that showed manufacturing continued to expand in April.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our  weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  AUD

 

Trade Balance (Mar)

-1.322B

-1.000B

-1.609B

   

  AUD

 

Interest Rate Decision (May)

 

2.00%

2.25%

 

 

  AUD

 

RBA Rate Statement  

 

 

 

   

 EURJPY(15 minutes)20150505063747

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Wednesday, May 6, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

 

 

 

Japan – Greenery Day

  NZD

 

Employment Change (QoQ) (Q1)

 

0.8%

1.2%

 

 

  AUD

 

Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)

 

0.4%

0.7%

 

 

  GBP

 

Services PMI (Apr)

 

58.5

58.9

 

 

  USD

 

ADP Nonfarm Employment

 

200K

189K

 

 

  USD

 

Fed Chair Yellen Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  CAD

 

Ivey PMI (Apr)

 

49.2

47.9

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 05 09:15 Austria Eur 1.1bn 3.5% Sep 2021

May 06 09:03 Sweden Sek 2bn 3.5% Jun 2022

May 06 09:10 Greece Eur 0.875bn 6 month (Nov 2015) T-bills

May 06 09:30 Germany Eur 5bn Jun 2017 Schatz

May 07 08:30 Spain Auctions 0.5% Oct 2017 Bono, 0.55%

May 07 09:10 France Auctions OATs

May 07 09:10 Sweden Holds inflation-linked bond auction

May 08 10:00 Norway Details bond auction on 12 May

May 08 15:30 Italy Announces details of BTP

May 12 09:15 Norway Holds bond auction

May 13 09:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

May 13 09:30 Germany Eur 3bn Feb 2025 Bund

May 13 14:30 Sweden Details bond auction on 20 May

May 14 09:30 UK Auctions 2% 2020 Conventional Gilt

 

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