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EUR/JPY Fundamental Analysis, May 7, 2015 – Forecast

eurjpy wednesday bnsnlaAnalysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/JPY added 55 points to trade at 134.61 as Japan remains on holiday. The euro soared in the morning session bouncing back over the 1.12 level against the US dollar.  Eurozone confidence weighed on the currency yesterday but Greece seems to be the controlling factor.

The Japanese Yen outperformed in overnight trade, adding as much as 0.5 percent. The move mirrored a sharp drop on Asian stock exchanges, pointing to haven flows as the driver propelling the safety-linked currency. Moving ahead, the preliminary set of April’s Eurozone CPI figures are expected to show the year-on-year core inflation rate held at 0.6 percent, unchanged from the prior month. The result seems unlikely to meaningfully impact the Euro even in the event of a deviation from forecasts considering its limited impact on near-term ECB policy trends.

The central bank appears essentially on auto-pilot as it proceeds with its €60 billion/month QE effort.

Greece’s debt standoff is exacerbating tension in euro-area bond markets, which already succumbed to their worst month since 2013 in April. The nation blamed international creditors for a failure to find an agreement in its bailout talks, saying a deal won’t be possible until they agree on a common set of demands. Portugal’s Finance Minister Maria Luis Albuquerque said on Tuesday Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras should take the offer on the table.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our  weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

 

 

 

Japan – Greenery Day

  NZD

 

Employment Change (QoQ)

0.7%

0.8%

1.2%

 

 

  AUD

 

Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)

0.3%

0.4%

0.7%

 

 

 eurjpy wed

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Thursday, May 7, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  AUD

 

Employment Change (Apr)

 

5.0K

37.7K

 

 

  AUD

 

Full Employment Change (Apr)

 

 

31.5K

 

 

  AUD

 

Unemployment Rate (Apr)

 

6.2%

6.1%

 

 

  EUR

 

German Factory Orders (MoM) (Mar)

 

1.5%

-0.9%

 

 

  RUB

 

Central Bank reserves (USD)

 

 

353.5B

 

 

  USD

 

Initial Jobless Claims

 

280K

262K

 

 

  CAD

 

Building Permits (MoM) (Mar)

 

2.5%

-0.9%

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 07 08:30 Spain Auctions 0.5% Oct 2017 Bono, 0.55%

May 07 09:10 France Auctions OATs

May 07 09:10 Sweden Holds inflation-linked bond auction

May 08 10:00 Norway Details bond auction on 12 May

May 08 15:30 Italy Announces details of BTP

May 12 09:15 Norway Holds bond auction

May 13 09:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

May 13 09:30 Germany Eur 3bn Feb 2025 Bund

May 13 14:30 Sweden Details bond auction on 20 May

May 14 09:30 UK Auctions 2% 2020 Conventional Gilt

 

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