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EUR/JPY Weekly Analysis Forecast – June 15-19, 2015 – Forecast

EUR/JPY Weekly Fundamental Analysis – June 15-19, 2015 - Forecast

EUR/JPY Weekly Fundamental Analysis – June 15-19, 2015 – Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendations (EUR/JPY Forecast):

The EUR/JPY is trading at 139.00 easing down from a high over the 1.40 level as the euro jumped up and down this week on Greek woes while the Japanese yen responded from comments from the BoJ governor.  Economics Minister Akira Amari said Kuroda told him informally that his remark was misinterpreted and he had no intention of moving markets.

Analysts say markets reacted particularly strongly to Kuroda’s remark because of his background as a former currency tsar and his track record of keeping to his script.

Early in the five-hour parliament session focusing on monetary policy, Kuroda was reading from a prepared script, when he said the dollar/yen could move both ways despite diverging policy paths between the Federal Reserve and the BOJ.

He went off script in the afternoon when Seiji Maehara, an opposition lawmaker and former Economics Minister, asked whether a decline in the yen’s real, effective exchange rate to levels hit in 1973 meant Japan’s economic strength had weakened.

Greece was set to be the dominant story for trading on the European markets after the IMF left the debt negotiations. There were indeed plenty of headlines and analysis on the Greek debt talks. However, initially, the impact on European markets remained moderate. In a speech, German Chancellor Merkel asked for understanding for what central banks have to do if inflation is low. She also mentioned that it is difficult for countries like Portugal to implement profit from structural reforms when the euro is too strong.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our  weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Historical: From 2011 to Present

Highest: 149.51 JPY in December 2014

Average: 109.45 JPY over this period.

Lowest: 94.12 JPY on Jul 24, 2012

 EURJPY(15 minutes)20150613071004

Major Economic Events for the week that you should be monitoring

 

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

Monday, June 15, 2015

 

  RUB

 

Interest Rate Decision (Jun)

 

11.50%

12.50%

 

 

Tuesday, June 16, 2015

 

  GBP

 

CPI (YoY) (May)

 

0.1%

-0.1%

 

 

 

  EUR

 

German ZEW Economic

 

37.1

41.9

 

 

 

  USD

 

Building Permits (May)

 

1.100M

1.140M

 

 

Wednesday, June 17, 2015

 

  GBP

 

Claimant Count Change (May)

 

-12.5K

-12.6K

 

 

 

  EUR

 

CPI (YoY) (May)

 

0.3%

0.3%

 

 

 

  USD

 

FOMC Statement  

 

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

Fed Interest Rate Decision

 

0.25%

0.25%

 

 

 

  USD

 

Fed Chair Yellen Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

Thursday, June 18, 2015

 

  NZD

 

GDP (QoQ) (Q1)

 

 

0.8%

 

 

 

  GBP

 

Retail Sales (MoM) (May)

 

0.2%

1.2%

 

 

 

  USD

 

Core CPI (MoM) (May)

 

0.2%

0.3%

 

 

 

  USD

 

Philadelphia Fed

 

8.0

6.7

 

 

Friday, June 19, 2015

 

  CAD

 

Core CPI (MoM) (May)

 

0.3%

0.1%

 

 

 

  CAD

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)

 

0.3%

0.5%

   

Upcoming Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country 

Jun 15 00:00 UK New 30 year I/L syndicated Gilt auction

Jun 17 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Jun 17 11:30 Germany Eur 3bn Feb 2025 Bund

Jun 18 10:30 Spain Auctions Bonos/Obligations

Jun 18 11:10 France Auctions BTANs

Jun 18 12:10 France Auctions OATi

Jun 18 17:00 US Details 2-year FRNs

Jun 18 17:00 US Announces details of 2/5/7 year notes

Jun 18 18:00 US Auctions 30-year TIPs sale on 24 Jun

 

EUR/JPY analysis forecast

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