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EUR/JPY Weekly Fundamental Analysis, May 11 – 15, 2015 – Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendations (EUR/JPY Forecast 2015 May):

The EUR/JPY concluded the week at 134.16 as the euro remained above its average trading range while the JPY weakened.  Japan’s debt stood at a record-high ¥1.053 quadrillion ($8.78 trillion) at the end of March, the Finance Ministry said Friday, increasing pressure on the government to take further austerity measures.

The ministry also projected the debt would reach ¥1.167 quadrillion by the end of fiscal 2015 next March, reflecting the need to finance ballooning social security costs with state debt as the population rapidly grays.

The latest figure tops the previous record of ¥1.039 quadrillion set in June last year and was more than double Japan’s nominal gross domestic product in 2014, which was ¥488 trillion. Japan’s fiscal health is the worst among the major developed economies.

The Bank of Japan’s equivocation on its inflation target is adding to the shifting global monetary policy picture that has sparked a sovereign debt rout.

The nation’s 10-year yield has climbed almost 10 basis points since BOJ Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda said April 30 that he sees the price goal being reached around the first half of the 2016 fiscal year. When Kuroda introduced his record bond-buying plan in April 2013, he said he expected the goal would be reached in about two years.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review in forex trading. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information for eur/jpy in our  weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Historical: From 2011 to Present

Highest: 149.51 JPY in December 2014

Average: 109.45 JPY over this period.

Lowest: 94.12 JPY on Jul 24, 2012

eur/jpy chart

Major Economic Events for the week that you should be monitoring in forex trading:

MONDAY, MAY 11

UK

GBP

BoE Asset Purchase Facility

£375

£375

UK

GBP

BoE Interest Rate Decision

0.5%

0.5%

TUESDAY, MAY 12

UK

GBP

NIESR GDP Estimate (3M) (Apr)

0.6%

WEDNESDAY, MAY 13

DE

EUR

Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q1)

0.7%

EMU

EUR

Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q1)

0.9%

UK

GBP

BOE’s Governor Carney speech

UK

GBP

Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report

EMU

EUR

ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts

US

USD

Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) (Apr)

0.4%

US

USD

Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)

0.9%

FRIDAY, MAY 15

JP

JPY

Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda Speech

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 12 09:15 Norway Holds bond auction

May 13 09:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

May 13 09:30 Germany Eur 3bn Feb 2025 Bund

May 13 14:30 Sweden Details bond auction on 20 May

May 14 09:30 UK Auctions 2% 2020 Conventional Gilt

EUR/JPY Forecast 2015, May

 

 

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