Analysis and Recommendations (EUR/USD Forecast for 03 June):
The EUR/USD soared 116 points to 1.1044 today as markets started to breathe a sigh of relief. The euro has jumped on reports that Greece’s creditors are close to agreeing a proposal to send to Athens. It’s a confusing picture; Reuters is saying that a draft deal is almost ready.
The heads of both the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank have attended talks in Berlin in an attempt to reach a deal with Athens. They joined German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Francois Hollande and European Commission head Jean-Claude Juncker at the meeting. The aim was to come up with “a final proposal” to present to Athens, according to reports. A €300m (£215m) payment to the IMF is due on Friday.
About one-third of investors expect Greece to exit the euro area over the next 12 months, according to a survey carried out by Swiss asset manager GAM Holding AG.
Just 9 per cent of the 78 investors questioned by GAM predicted the UK leaving the European Union, the Zurich-based company said in an e-mailed statement on Tuesday. The survey was held at a private conference in Zurich on Friday.
Greece is squabbling with its creditors over lack of progress in talks to secure financing to replenish a bailout package expiring this month. The impasse has reignited concerns Greece may leave the single currency.
On the second day of this week, USD index had important fall especially after speculative Greek news around. Simply reversed from 97.75 and fell down to 95.98 which is 45 days EMA level. This level should be watched carefully.
EURUSD had supported the weakness of USD Index last week. According to this, rised up to 1.1200 levels and currently as we are writing this article, is moving around 1.1170. Technically 1.1060 – 1.1010 area is important for the parity. If stays over this level, 1.1200 level will be tested again. This beaviour may trigger a rise up to ,1.1320. The first critical level we must watch is 1.1135.
Today there will be too many news and announcements like Draghi’s speec, so traders must be aware of any possible high volatility.
ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review in trading forex. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information for EUR/USD in our weekly reports.
Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:
|AUD||Current Account (Q1)||-10.7B||-10.8B||-10.2B|
|AUD||Interest Rate Decision (Jun)||2.00%||2.00%||2.00%|
|AUD||RBA Rate Statement|
|EUR||Spanish Unemployment Change||-118.0K||-115.5K||-118.9K|
|EUR||German Unemployment Change||-6K||-10K||-9K|
|EUR||German Unemployment Rate||6.4%||6.4%||6.4%|
|GBP||Construction PMI (May)||55.0||54.2|
|EUR||Core CPI (YoY) (May)||0.7%||0.6%|
|EUR||CPI (YoY) (May)||0.2%||0.0%|
Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring for EUR/USD in trading forex:
Wednesday, June 03, 2015
|AUD||GDP (QoQ) (Q1)||0.5%||0.5%|
|AUD||GDP (YoY) (Q1)||2.0%||2.5%|
|GBP||Services PMI (May)||59.2||59.5|
|EUR||Interest Rate Decision (Jun)||0.05%||0.05%|
|USD||ADP Nonfarm Employment||200K||169K|
|EUR||ECB Press Conference|
|USD||ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI||57.0||57.8|
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
Jun 02 11:30 UK Gbp 3.25bn 2% Sep 2025 Conventional Gilt
Jun 03 11:03 Sweden Sek 2bn 3.5% Jun 2022 & Sek 2bn 1.5% Nov 2023 bonds
Jun 03 11:10 Swiss Holds bond auction
Jun 03 11:30 Germany Eur 3bn 0.0% Apr 2020
Jun 04 11:10 France Eur 8-9bn 1.75% May 2023
Jun 04 11:30 UK Gbp 750mn 4.25% 2055 mini-Gilt tender
Jun 08 12:00 Norway Details bond auction on 10 Jun
Jun 08 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTP/CCTeu on 11 June
Jun 09 11:10 Austria Holds RAGB bond sale
Jun 09 11:30 UK Auctions 0.125% 2024 I/L Gilt
Jun 10 11:15 Norway Holds bond auction
Jun 10 11:30 Germany Eur 5bn Jun 2017 Schatz
Jun 10 16:30 Sweden Details bond auction on 17 June
Jun 11 11:30 Spain Auctions Bonos
Jun 11 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus
Jun 11 11:10 Sweden Holds inflation-linked bond auction
Jun 11 11:30 UK Auctions 3.5% 2045 Conventional Gilt
Jun 11 17:00 US Announces details of 30-year TIPs sale on 18 Jun