Analysis and Recommendations (EUR/USD Forecast for 21 May):
The EUR/USD dipped 41 points to trade at 1.1109 as traders worried about Greece and the ECB comments that it might increase its bond buying program. German inflation dipped to 0.1%. Traders moved into the greenback in New York trade after figures that showed US new home construction hit its strongest pace in more than seven years in April, renewed talk of an interest rate.The euro retreated after a European Central Bank official said it would increase its asset purchases in May and June to offset an expected financial market slowdown in the following months. “The dollar is being bought on the relatively strong housing data and bond market friendly comments from ECB officials,” said Yujiro Goto, a Nomura currency strategist. “Since the Federal Reserve is data dependent, seeing more good economic reports is overwhelmingly important,” he told Bloomberg News. Investors will late Wednesday pore over the minutes of the Fed’s April 28-29 policy meeting to look for clues about when it might lift interest rates, which have been pegged at record lows since 2008.
Many analysts pointed to headlines over Greece as weakening the euro, while others said there is a broad feeling the dollar is moving back onto the offensive again after a month-long pullback from its rally over the last year.
The euro, was weighed down Tuesday by signs the European Central Bank is prepared to do more to drive bond yields and the currency lower, sank as low as $1.1062 in early European deals, down from a high of $1.1468 hit last Friday.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis Forecast For 21 May
As we are in the last two days of this week, EUR/USD succeded to stay over 1.1060 support level after FOMC. This level is so critical for EUR/USD future trend.
Today is the busiest day about macro-economic developments and news. The PMI data from Europe and PMI, manufacturing index, jobless claims, home sales data will create high volatility.During these times, EUR/USD may move fast and traders should be careful about their stop loss levels.
Technically 1.1060 support is active for EUR/USD and above this level short term buyers would be active in the market. If so, 1.1205 – 1.1290 would be seen in EUR/USD today. But USD index should be weak for this. Also with this kind of data arrival, technical may failure so keep your eyes on the news today.
ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review in forex trading. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information for EUR/USD in our weekly reports.
Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:
|AUD||RBA Assist Gov Lowe Speaks|
|JPY||GDP (YoY) (Q1)||2.4%||1.5%||1.1%|
|JPY||GDP (QoQ) (Q1)||0.6%||0.4%||0.3%|
|AUD||Westpac Consumer Sentiment (May)||6.4%||-3.2%|
|EUR||German PPI (MoM) (Apr)||0.1%||0.2%||0.1%|
|GBP||BoE MPC vote cut (May)||0||0||0|
|GBP||BoE MPC vote hike (May)||0||0||0|
|GBP||BoE MPC vote unchanged (May)||9||9||9|
|GBP||BoE MPC Meeting Minutes|
Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring for EUR/USD in forex trading:
Thursday, May 21, 2015
|CNY||HSBC Manufacturing PMI||49.3||48.9|
|EUR||German Manufacturing PMI||52.3||52.1|
|GBP||Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)||0.4%||-0.5%|
|USD||Existing Home Sales (Apr)||5.24M||5.19M|
|USD||Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing||8.0||7.5|
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
May 21 08:30 Spain Auctions Bonos
May 21 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction
May 21 09:10 France Auctions BTANs
May 21 09:30 UK Auctions 4.75% 2030 Conventional Gilt
May 21 10:10 France Auctions
May 21 15:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 26 May
May 21 15:00 US Announces details of 2-year FRN on 27 May, plus 2/5/7 year
May 21 17:00 US Auctions 10-year TIPs
May 22 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction
May 22 10:00 Norway Details bond auction on 27 May