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EUR/USD Analysis Forecast For 21 May 2015

Analysis and Recommendations (EUR/USD Forecast):

The EUR/USD took its hardest fall this year, losing 130 points to trade at 1.1184 on comments of an expanded program from the ECB, week German ZEW data and low inflation.  The president of the European Commission has moved to deny reports he has intervened in Greece’s bail-out negotiations, and stressed EU leaders would not agree a bail-out deal at a summit at the end of this week.

According to a leaked document in Greek media on Monday, Mr. Juncker had proposed a reduction in Troika-imposed budget targets and a release of emergency cash to prevent Greece going bankrupt in the summer.

The text of a speech made last night in London by ECB’s Benoit Coeure and talking of front-loading QE purchases to compensate for summer illiquidity. And to add fuel to the fire we had BOF Gov Noyer suggesting that they wouldn’t shy away from additional easing measures if needed.

In the space of a few minutes the ECB’s “lower bound” just got moved lower and QE longer. That’s how the market has taken the comments. There’s also the fact that the ECB are loading up ahead of the summer months where liquidity suffers. The market had been chatting about what they would do over the summer and now we have the answer.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review in forex trading. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information for EUR/USD in our weekly reports.

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Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast for EUR/USD:

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  NZD PPI Input (QoQ) (Q1) -1.1% -0.7% -0.4%  
  AUD Monetary Policy Meeting  
  NZD Inflation Expectations (QoQ) 1.9% 1.8%  
  GBP CPI (MoM) (Apr) 0.2% 0.4% 0.2%  
  GBP CPI (YoY) (Apr) -0.1% 0.0% 0.0%  
  GBP PPI Input (MoM) (Apr) 0.4% 0.8% 0.4%
  EUR German ZEW Current Conditions 65.7 68.0 70.2  
  EUR German ZEW Economic 41.9 49.0 53.3  
  EUR Core CPI (YoY) (Apr) 0.6% 0.6% 0.6%  
  EUR CPI (YoY) (Apr) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%  
  EUR CPI (MoM) (Apr) 0.2% 0.2% 1.1%  
  EUR Trade Balance (Mar) 23.4B 22.8B 20.3B  
  EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment 61.2 62.4 64.8

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring for EUR/USD  in forex trading:

Wednesday, May 20, 2015

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  JPY GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 0.4% 0.4%
  JPY GDP (YoY) (Q1) 1.5% 1.5%
  AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment -3.2%
  EUR German PPI (MoM) (Apr) 0.2% 0.1%
  GBP BoE MPC Meeting Minutes
  CAD Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Mar) 0.7% -0.4%
  USD Crude Oil Inventories -2.191M
  USD FOMC Meeting Minutes

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 20 09:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

May 21 08:30 Spain Auctions Bonos

May 21 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction

May 21 09:10 France Auctions BTANs

May 21 09:30 UK Auctions 4.75% 2030 Conventional Gilt

May 21 10:10 France Auctions

May 21 15:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 26 May

May 21 15:00 US Announces details of 2-year FRN on 27 May, plus 2/5/7 year

May 21 17:00 US Auctions 10-year TIPs

May 22 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction

May 22 10:00 Norway Details bond auction on 27 May

 

EUR/USD analysis forecast archieve

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