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EUR/USD Analysis Forecast, June 04, 2015 – Forecast

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis, June 04, 2015 - Forecast

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis, June 04, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations (EUR/USD Forecast):

The EUR/USD drifted down 42 points to trade at 1.1111 correcting from yesterday’s rally after monthly inflation recovered and a solution to Greece’s finances seemed to be a reality.  The ECB kept rates unchanged, and is widely expected to reiterate its commitment to the one-trillion euro bond buying program it launched in March, though it could sound upbeat about growth and inflation prospects.

The euro was down 0.25 percent at $1.1121, having climbed around 2.1 percent to $1.1195 yesterday. The initial catalyst for the euro’s rally was data that showed a surprisingly large increase in inflation in the currency bloc, which suggested the ECB’s stimulus campaign was gaining traction.

The euro got another leg up when the ECB, the European Commission and the International Monetary Fund agreed on terms of a cash-for-reform deal to be put to Greece. Markets have taken this as an encouraging step, though it is not clear if Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’ government will accept it.  A Greek government spokesman said on Wednesday Greece would not make its June 5 loan repayment to the IMF if there was no chance of an aid-for-reforms deal with international creditors.

If Greece misses a payment to the IMF it would have a grace period of 30 days or more to make good on its debt.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information for EUR/USD in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  AUD

 

GDP (QoQ) (Q1)

0.9%

0.7%

0.5%

 

 

  AUD

 

GDP (YoY) (Q1)

2.3%

2.1%

2.5%

 

 

  CNY

 

HSBC Services PMI (May)

53.5

53.3

52.9

 

 

  GBP

 

Nationwide HPI (MoM) (May)

0.3%

0.3%

1.0%

 

 

  GBP

 

Nationwide HPI (YoY) (May)

4.6%

4.7%

5.2%

 

 

  RUB

 

HSBC Services PMI (May)

52.8

48.0

50.7

 

 

  EUR

 

Spanish Services PMI (May)

58.4

59.3

60.3

 

 

  EUR

 

German Services PMI (May)

53.0

52.9

52.9

 

 

  EUR

 

Markit Composite PMI (May)

53.6

53.4

53.4

 

 

  EUR

 

Services PMI (May)

53.8

53.3

53.3

 

 

  GBP

 

Services PMI (May)

56.5

59.2

59.5

 

 

  EUR

 

Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)

0.7%

0.7%

-0.6%

   

  EUR

 

Unemployment Rate (Apr)

11.1%

11.2%

11.2%

   

  EUR

 

Interest Rate Decision (Jun)

0.05%

0.05%

0.05%

 

 

  USD

 

ADP Nonfarm Employment

201K

200K

165K

   

  USD

 

Trade Balance (Apr)

-40.88B

-44.00B

-50.57B

   

  CAD

 

Trade Balance (Apr)

-2.97B

-2.10B

-3.85B

   

  EUR

 

ECB Press Conference  

 

 

 

 

 

 eurusd wed

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Thursday, June 04, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  JPY

 

BoJ Governor Kuroda Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  AUD

 

Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr)

 

0.4%

0.3%

 

 

  AUD

 

Trade Balance (Apr)

 

-2.250B

-1.322B

 

 

  GBP

 

BoE QE Total (Jun)

 

375B

375B

 

 

  GBP

 

Interest Rate Decision (Jun)

 

0.50%

0.50%

 

 

  RUB

 

CPI (MoM)

 

0.4%

0.5%

 

 

  RUB

 

CPI (YoY)

 

15.9%

16.4%

 

 

  RUB

 

Central Bank reserves (USD)

 

 

360.5B

 

 

  USD

 

Initial Jobless Claims

 

279K

282K

 

 

  USD

 

Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ)

 

-2.9%

-1.9%

 

 

  USD

 

Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q1)

 

5.9%

5.0%

 

 

  CAD

 

Ivey PMI (May)

 

55.5

58.2

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Jun 04 11:10 France Eur 8-9bn 1.75% May 2023

Jun 04 11:30 UK Gbp 750mn 4.25% 2055 mini-Gilt tender

Jun 08 12:00 Norway Details bond auction on 10 Jun

Jun 08 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTP/CCTeu on 11 June

Jun 09 11:10 Austria Holds RAGB bond sale

Jun 09 11:30 UK Auctions 0.125% 2024 I/L Gilt

Jun 10 11:15 Norway Holds bond auction

Jun 10 11:30 Germany Eur 5bn Jun 2017 Schatz

Jun 10 16:30 Sweden Details bond auction on 17 June

Jun 11 11:30 Spain Auctions Bonos

Jun 11 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

Jun 11 11:10 Sweden Holds inflation-linked bond auction

Jun 11 11:30 UK Auctions 3.5% 2045 Conventional Gilt

Jun 11 17:00 US Announces details of 30-year TIPs sale on 18 Jun

 

EUR/USD analysis forecast

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