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EUR/USD Analysis Forecast – June 15, 2015 – Forecast

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis – June 15, 2015 - Forecast

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis – June 15, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations (EUR/USD Forecast):

The EUR/USD eased 91 points to trade at 1.1170 keeping pace with Thursday’s decline as the IMF walked out of bailout talks with the Greeks increasing the likelihood of a Grexit.  The US dollar crept higher Thursday in a market on edge over troubled Greek negotiations with official creditors. Disappointing industrial production numbers weighed heavily on the euro as data showed a drop in production and a downward revision to last month.

US data showing a rebound in retail sales in May, especially on cars, also supported the greenback as evidence that consumers were opening up pocketbooks. Despite the strong US retail sales data, the dollar’s gain was small — about 0.6 percent to $1.1260 per euro — amid a push into Treasuries.

“Many investors anticipated a stronger move given the sharp rise in retail sales,” said Kathy Lien of BK Asset Management.

Lien said the data nevertheless added to the hawkish case for the Federal Reserve, which holds a policy meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, to push ahead with a rate increase sooner rather than later. She added that the lack of progress in talks between Greece and its official creditors, with the creditors toughening their stance, was bearish for the euro.

The IMF piled pressure on Athens Thursday when it walked away from the talks saying the “ball is very much in Greece’s court right now”, adding key disagreements were on pensions, taxes and financing.

Greece must reach a compromise with its creditors — the IMF, European Commission and European Central Bank — before the end of the month to unlock much-needed cash to service its debts. Failure to do so will lead it to default and possibly exit the Eurozone.

“The fact the IMF walked out of talks overnight and flew straight back to the States doesn’t help sentiment or give you confidence a deal will be done… This will get messy,” Evan Lucas, an IG markets strategist in Melbourne, wrote in a client note.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information for EUR/USD in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

 

 

 

Russia – Russia Day

  NZD

 

Business NZ PMI (May)

51.5

 

51.8

 

 

  JPY

 

Industrial Production (MoM)

1.2%

1.0%

1.0%

 

 

  JPY

 

Tertiary Industry Activity Index

-0.2%

0.4%

-1.0%

 

 

  EUR

 

Spanish CPI (YoY) (May)

-0.2%

-0.2%

-0.6%

 

 

  EUR

 

Spanish HICP (YoY) (May)

-0.3%

-0.3%

-0.3%

 

 

  EUR

 

Industrial Production (MoM)

 

0.3%

-0.3%

   

 eurusd fri

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Monday, June 15, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  CHF

 

Retail Sales (YoY) (Apr)

 

 

-2.8%

 

 

  CHF

 

PPI (MoM) (May)

 

 

-2.1%

 

 

  EUR

 

Trade Balance (Apr)

 

 

23.4B

 

 

  RUB

 

Interest Rate Decision (Jun)

 

11.50%

12.50%

 

 

  USD

 

NY Empire State Manufacturing

 

5.20

3.09

 

 

  CAD

 

Manufacturing Sales (MoM)

 

 

2.9%

 

 

  USD

 

Industrial Production (MoM)

 

0.2%

-0.3%

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Jun 15 00:00 UK New 30 year I/L syndicated Gilt auction

Jun 17 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Jun 17 11:30 Germany Eur 3bn Feb 2025 Bund

Jun 18 10:30 Spain Auctions Bonos/Obligations

Jun 18 11:10 France Auctions BTANs

Jun 18 12:10 France Auctions OATi

Jun 18 17:00 US Details 2-year FRNs

Jun 18 17:00 US Announces details of 2/5/7 year notes

Jun 18 18:00 US Auctions 30-year TIPs sale on 24 Jun

 

EUR/USD analysis forecast

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