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EUR/USD Analysis Forecast – June 9, 2015 – Forecast

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis – June 9, 2015 - Forecast

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis – June 9, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations (EUR/USD Forecast):

The EUR/USD added 45 points after strong German trade numbers helped it reverse earlier losses against the greenback. The euro is trading at 1.1159. Traders are still nervously watching events in Europe after Greece tied up a deal to delay its latest debt repayments. While the delay gives Athens until the end of the month to reach an agreement with its creditors as it looks to reform its bailout terms, the euro retreated against the dollar and yen on concerns that stumbling blocks remain.

Fund head Christine Lagarde also called on the Federal Reserve to refrain from hiking interest rates until 2016, saying conditions were not supportive of a move this year. Her comments come as markets await the release Friday of US jobs growth for May, which is used by the Fed to guide rate policy.

The US jobs report revealed that during the previous month the US economy added 280k jobs beating analysts’ expectations while the average hourly earnings also printed in a better than expected fashion at a 0.3% growth rate. It goes without saying that this news excited traders than didn’t miss out on the opportunity to get rid of their previous anti-Dollar positions and pile on the US currency. The European majors posted significant losses and we believe that this could be a turning point for their outlook.

The report served as a confirmation signal for the Fed that everything in the economy is moving at a favorable pace and their plans for raising the key interest rates in the next months are in line with the progress in the domestic labor market. There are already voices that suggest that the central bank will move forward and tighten their rate policy sooner than expected but we still believe that the September meeting appears as the most likely timing for liftoff.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information for EUR/USD in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

 

 

 

Australia – Queen’s Birthday

  JPY

 

Adjusted Current Account

1.27T

1.45T

2.07T

 

 

  JPY

 

Current Account (Apr)

1.326T

1.696T

2.795T

 

 

  JPY

 

GDP (YoY) (Q1)

3.9%

2.7%

2.4%

 

 

  JPY

 

GDP (QoQ) (Q1)

1.0%

0.7%

0.6%

 

 

  CNY

 

Exports (YoY) (May)

-2.5%

-5.0%

-6.4%

 

 

  CNY

 

Imports (YoY) (May)

-17.6%

-10.7%

-16.2%

 

 

  CNY

 

Trade Balance (May)

59.49B

44.95B

34.13B

 

 

  EUR

 

German Industrial Production

0.9%

0.5%

-0.4%

   

  EUR

 

German Trade Balance (Apr)

22.3B

19.4B

19.4B

   

eurusd mon

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Tuesday, June 09, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  GBP

 

BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY)

 

 

-2.4%

 

 

  AUD

 

Home Loans (MoM) (Apr)

 

-2.0%

1.6%

 

 

  AUD

 

NAB Business Confidence (May)

 

 

3

 

 

  CNY

 

CPI (MoM) (May)

 

 

-0.2%

 

 

  CNY

 

CPI (YoY) (May)

 

1.3%

1.5%

 

 

  CNY

 

PPI (YoY) (May)

 

-4.5%

-4.6%

 

 

  CHF

 

Unemployment Rate n.s.a.

 

 

3.3%

 

 

  CHF

 

CPI (MoM) (May)

 

0.1%

-0.2%

 

 

  GBP

 

Trade Balance (Apr)

 

-9.85B

-10.12B

 

 

  GBP

 

Trade Balance Non-EU (Apr)

 

-3.00B

-3.16B

 

 

  EUR

 

GDP (YoY) (Q1)

 

1.0%

1.0%

 

 

  EUR

 

GDP (QoQ) (Q1)

 

0.4%

0.4%

 

 

  USD

 

JOLTs Job Openings (Apr)

 

 

4.994M

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Jun 09 11:10 Austria Holds RAGB bond sale

Jun 09 11:30 UK Auctions 0.125% 2024 I/L Gilt

Jun 10 11:15 Norway Holds bond auction

Jun 10 11:30 Germany Eur 5bn Jun 2017 Schatz

Jun 10 16:30 Sweden Details bond auction on 17 June

Jun 11 11:30 Spain Auctions Bonos

Jun 11 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

Jun 11 11:10 Sweden Holds inflation-linked bond auction

Jun 11 11:30 UK Auctions 3.5% 2045 Conventional Gilt

Jun 11 17:00 US Announces details of 30-year TIPs sale on 18 Jun

 

EUR/USD analysis forecast

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