Analysis and Recommendations (EUR/USD Forecast):
The EUR/USD is trading flat at 1.1217 up by 3 points showing little reaction to the weak Eurozone data today. Economic growth in the US and China is expected to slow down while the eurozone is still on course for economic recovery this year, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).
“In the euro area, growth momentum continues to strengthen, particularly in France and Italy. Signs of easing growth momentum are emerging in the United States, although these may reflect transitory factors,” the organization said in its Tuesday report based on March data.
The OECD composite leading indicators forecasting economic activity in the next 6-9 months signal a stable growth in countries such as Japan, Germany, Great Britain and India, while a loss in growth momentum is seen in Canada, China, Brazil and Russia.
Although most economists expect US economic growth will rebound to the levels of 2014 in the forthcoming months, the OECD report shows this may not happen. The leading indicator for the US fell in each of the first three months of the year, and is now standing at 99.6 against 101.1 in December.
The European Commission last week revised its forecast for economic growth this year to 1.5 per cent, up from 1.3 per cent, and a significant gain on the 0.9 per cent posted last year. And by 2016 the European Commission expects the Eurozone economy to grow by 1.9 per cent.
It said it will helped by increased domestic, as falling oil prices leave households with more spending money.
The European Central Bank’s (ECB) unprecedented stimulus package, under which it will buy €1.1 trillion of government bonds by September 2016, will also be a boon. It’s driving down interest rates as well as the euro, making Euro area businesses more competitive internationally.
ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review in forex trading. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information for EUR/USD in our weekly reports.
Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:
|NZD||RBNZ Gov Wheeler Speaks|
|JPY||Current Account n.s.a. (Mar)||2.795T||2.060T||1.440T|
|AUD||Wage Price Index (QoQ) (Q1)||0.5%||0.6%||0.6%|
|CNY||Fixed Asset Investment (YoY)||12.0%||13.5%||13.5%|
|CNY||Industrial Production (YoY)||5.9%||6.0%||5.6%|
|EUR||German CPI (MoM) (Apr)||0.0%||-0.1%||-0.1%|
|EUR||German GDP (YoY) (Q1)||1.1%||1.2%||1.6%|
|EUR||German GDP (QoQ) (Q1)||0.3%||0.5%||0.7%|
|CNY||New Loans (Apr)||707.9B||903.0B||1,180.0B|
|GBP||Average Earnings Index +Bonus||1.9%||1.7%||1.7%|
|GBP||Claimant Count Change (Apr)||-12.6K||-20.0K||-16.7K|
|GBP||Unemployment Rate (Mar)||5.5%||5.5%||5.6%|
|EUR||GDP (QoQ) (Q1)||0.4%||0.5%||0.3%|
|EUR||Industrial Production (MoM)||-0.3%||0.2%||1.1%|
|GBP||BoE Gov Carney Speaks|
|GBP||BoE Inflation Report|
|EUR||Monetary Policy Meeting|
Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring for EUR/USD in forex trading:
Thursday, May 14, 2015
|NZD||Business NZ PMI (Apr)||54.5|
|NZD||Core Retail Sales (QoQ)||1.5%||1.5%|
|NZD||Retail Sales (QoQ) (Q1)||1.5%||1.7%|
|GBP||RICS House Price Balance (Apr)||22%||21%|
|USD||Core PPI (MoM) (Apr)||0.1%||0.2%|
|USD||Initial Jobless Claims||275K||265K|
|USD||PPI (MoM) (Apr)||0.2%||0.2%|
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
May 14 09:00 Ireland Eur 0.75bn 0.8% Mar 2022 IGBs
May 14 09:30 UK GBP 3.75bn 2% Jul 2020 Conventional Gilt
May 14 15:00 US Announces details of 10-year TIPS sale on 21 May
May 14 17:00 US USD 16bn 30-year bond
May 18 09:30 Germany Eur 1.5bn 12M (May 2016) Bubills
May 18 10:00 Belgium Auctions OLOs
EUR/USD analysis forecast
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