EUR/USD Analysis Forecast, May 15, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations (EUR/USD Forecast):

The EUR/USD soared to a 3 month high at 1.1412 up by 58 points as the US dollar continued to weaken reaching 93.38. The dollar is trading above the weekly lows in early European trading following a disappointing US retail sales report yesterday afternoon. In contrast to the US labour report on Friday, the retail sales data revealed a below consensus headline but a stronger revised component. Although some analysts suggested that further upward revisions could be seen moving forward into Q2, the consensus fears a deeper slowdown in the US which will inevitably delay the timing of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve. CFTC data still suggests the EUR/USD short trade is overly crowded with a staggering $26.5 billion of dollar shorts remaining against the single currency.

More data out on Thursday could further fuel the rate-rise debate and send the dollar lower, with weekly jobless claims forecast to show a rise in Americans filing for unemployment benefits last week.

The shared currency, however, fell from its intraday high of $1.1435 after Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis said his country’s repayments to the European Central Bank should be pushed back to “the distant future”.

Several disappointing reports on the U.S. economy increasingly ruled out calls for a June rate hike. A rate hike is usually seen as boosting a country’s currency, and the dollar had risen sharply earlier in the year on hopes a rate rise was imminent.

ForexTraq provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review in forex trading. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information for EUR/USD in our weekly reports.

EURUSD chart

Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  NZD Business NZ PMI (Apr) 54.5
  NZD Core Retail Sales (QoQ) 2.9% 1.5% 1.9%
  NZD Retail Sales (QoQ) (Q1) 2.7% 1.5% 1.7%
  GBP RICS House Price Balance (Apr) 33% 22% 22%


Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring for EUR/USD in forex trading:

Friday, May 15, 2015

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  JPY BoJ Governor Kuroda Speaks
  CHF PPI (MoM) (Apr) -0.1% 0.2%
  USD NY Empire State Manufacturing 5.00 -1.19
  CAD Foreign Securities Purchases 7.23B 9.27B
  CAD Manufacturing Sales (MoM) 1.2% -1.7%
  USD Industrial Production (MoM) 0.1% -0.6%
  USD Michigan Consumer 88.6 88.8

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 18 09:30 Germany Eur 1.5bn 12M (May 2016) Bubills

May 18 10:00 Belgium Auctions OLOs

May 20 09:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

May 21 08:30 Spain Auctions Bonos

May 21 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction

May 21 09:10 France Auctions BTANs

May 21 09:30 UK Auctions 4.75% 2030 Conventional Gilt

May 21 10:10 France Auctions

May 21 15:30 Italy Announces details of CTZ/BTPei on 26 May

May 21 15:00 US Announces details of 2-year FRN on 27 May, plus 2/5/7 year

May 21 17:00 US Auctions 10-year TIPs

May 22 09:03 Sweden Holds bond exchange auction

May 22 10:00 Norway Details bond auction on 27 May

EUR/USD analysis forecast


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